How the Obama coalition crumbled, leaving an opening for Trump

It was clear from the start that Hillary Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition

It is entirely possible, as many have argued, that Hillary Clinton would be the president-elect of the United States if the F.B.I. director, James Comey, had not sent a letter to Congress about her emails in the last weeks of the campaign.

But the electoral trends that put Donald J. Trump within striking distance of victory were clear long before Mr. Comey sent his letter. They were clear before WikiLeaks published hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee. They were even clear back in early July, before Mr. Comey excoriated Mrs. Clinton for using a private email server.

It was clear from the start that Mrs. Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition.

At every point of the race, Mr. Trump was doing better among white voters without a college degree than Mitt Romney did in 2012 — by a wide margin. Mrs. Clinton was also not matching Mr. Obama’s support among black voters.

This was the core of the Obama coalition: an alliance between black voters and Northern white voters, from Mr. Obama’s first win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses to his final sprint across the so-called Midwestern Firewall states where he staked his 2012 re-election bid.

In 2016, the Obama coalition crumbled and so did the Midwestern Firewall.

The Obama Coalition Falters

The countryside of Iowa or the industrial belt along Lake Erie is not the sort of place that people envision when they think of the Obama coalition. Yet it was an important component of his victory.

Campaign lore has it that President Obama won thanks to a young, diverse, well-educated and metropolitan “coalition of the ascendant” — an emerging Democratic majority anchored in the new economy. Hispanic voters, in particular, were credited with Mr. Obama’s victory.

But Mr. Obama would have won re-election even if he hadn’t won the Hispanic vote at all. He would have won even if the electorate had been as old and as white as it had been in 2004.

Largely overlooked, his key support often came in the places where you would least expect it. He did better than John Kerry and Al Gore among white voters across the Northern United States, despite exit poll results to the contrary. Over all, 34 percent of Mr. Obama’s voters were whites without a college degree — larger in number than black voters, Hispanic voters or well-educated whites.

Percentage of white Democrats without a college degree who say …

Gun rights are more important than control

The U.S. should get tougher with China on economic issues

Free trade does more harm than good

That they have a favorable view of N.R.A.

Immigrants are a burden to society

Newcomers threaten traditional values

That they disapprove of Obamacare

Islam encourages violence

Abortion should be illegal in most cases

Stricter environmental laws cost too many jobs

Homosexuality should be discouraged

Some reductions in Social Security should be considered

45%

40%

39%

38%

38%

35%

33%

27%

26%

21%

20%

20%

 

Percentage of white Democrats without a college degree who say …

Gun rights are more important than control

Gett tougher with China on economic issues

Free trade does more harm than good

They have a favorable view of N.R.A.

Immigrants are a burden to society

Newcomers threaten traditional values

They disapprove of Obamacare

Islam encourages violence

Abortion should be illegal in most cases

Stricter environmental laws cost too many jobs

Homosexuality should be discouraged

Some reductions in Social Security should be considered

45%

40%

39%

38%

38%

35%

33%

27%

26%