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Inflation-averse Germans see fastest price rises in 4.5 years

Manufacturing was also reported as growing at the strongest rate since 2011

Mall, German Inflation
A general view shows the atrium of the Mall of Berlin shopping centre during its opening night in Berlin, Germany
Reuters Berlin
Last Updated : Mar 01 2017 | 9:16 PM IST

German inflation, a politically- and emotionally-charged issue for consumers heading for the polls later this year, soared to its highest level in four-and-a-half years in February, bounding past the European Central Bank's euro zone target.

Manufacturing was also reported as growing at the strongest rate since 2011, in a further sign that Europe's biggest economy is firing on all cylinders.

The inflation data will nonetheless fuel calls from politicians for an end to the ECB's loose monetary policy, particularly with the federal election set for September.

Inflation is a red flag for many Germans whose families suffered from depreciation of money and mass unemployment in the 1920s. Coupled with the ECB's zero interest rates, inflation is also undermining already meagre returns from savings accounts.

Consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European countries, rose by 2.2 per cent on the year after an increase of 1.9 per cent in January, the Federal Statistics Office said.

That was the highest annual inflation rate since August 2012 and came in slightly stronger than a iconsensus forecast of 2.1 per cent

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The ECB targets a rate of below but close to two per cent for the 19-member euro zone as a whole.

Rising energy prices and higher food costs were the main drivers behind the overall increase in Germany, a breakdown of the non-harmonized data showed.

"That's not just a flash in the pan. Inflation will remain this high in the coming months," Postbank chief economist Marco Bargel said, adding that core inflation would also pick up due to Germany's continued upswing and its robust labour market.

German unemployment fell more than expected in February and the jobless rate remained unchanged at its lowest level since reunification in 1990, separate data from the Federal Labour Office showed on Wednesday.

STRENGTH

The strong economy enables companies to pass on higher costs - such as increased import prices - to customers, pushing up overall inflation.

This trend was also reflected in Markit's survey among purchasing managers, also released on Wednesday. It showed that output prices charged by manufacturers rose in February at the fastest pace since 2011.

The goods-producing sector expanded at its strongest rate in nearly six years in February, it showed, suggesting factories will push up overall growth at the start of 2017.

"The ECB will come under pressure to roll back its ultra-loose monetary policy, also because the economy has improved on a sustainable basis," Postbank's Bargel said.

The inflation rate for the entire euro zone is expected to rise to two per cent in February from 1.8 per cent in January, economists polled by Reuters said. Those figures are due on Thursday.

The ECB has slashed interest rates and adopted a bond-buying programme worth 2.3 trillion euros to pump money into the region's economy. It has rejected German calls to scale back its stimulus, arguing that core inflation is still too weak.

"Calls from Germany on the ECB to change its monetary policy are mistaken and premature," the head of Germany's DIW economic research institute Marcel Fratzscher said.

A sustained rebound in German inflation would give Bundesbank President and ECB rate-setter Jens Weidmann more grounds to argue for a reduction in the ECB's bond-buying programme, a scheme that he has often criticised.

The German central bank has warned that homes in large German cities are 15 to 30 per cent overpriced, stoking fears about the side-effects of the ECB's stimulus.

The German economy grew by 1.9 per cent last year, driven by strong private consumption, increased state spending and higher construction investment, and it is expected to carry its growth momentum through into 2017.

Markit economist Trevor Balchin said he expected Germany's quarterly growth rate to accelerate to at least 0.6 per cent in the first three months of 2017 from 0.4 per cent in the final three months of 2016.

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First Published: Mar 01 2017 | 9:15 PM IST

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