Int'l unity over Russia-Ukraine war makes China cautious towards Taiwan

China under Xi Jinping will be cautious and calibrated in its behaviour towards Taiwan after witnessing the international community's unity and reaction after Russia's war on Ukraine.

While similarities between Taiwan and Ukraine cannot be drawn in a linear fashion, strong deductions can be made with regard to China's behavior toward Taiwan and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

The Ukraine-Russia crisis has put forward the best worst-case scenario for Chinese President Xi Jinping to calculate their move for their future plan for Taiwan and could also expect what the international community can do if someone tries to invade in a peaceful life, analysed International Forum for Rights and Security (IFFRAS), Canada based international think tank.

"For China, and Xi in particular, the big lessons will be drawn from a careful reading of the international community's reaction toward what Putin calls Russia's "special military operation" aiming to "demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine" under the logic that "Russia cannot feel safe, develop and exist with a constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine." The outcome has so far been international condemnation and boycotts of Russia, and the imposition of economic sanctions by the US and the EU -- resulting in Russia becoming a "pariah" state, International Forum for Rights and Security said.

The unity in the international community in imposing punitive sanctions on Russia disturbs China's larger geopolitical plans that there is a growing united front between the US and Europe -- with the crisis in Ukraine bridging the gap, it added.

If this united front strengthens, it will not only be a debacle for China's global ambitions; it will also have ramifications for China's plans for Taiwan.

Besides, Taiwan will be a much harder bargain for China. At this juncture, Beijing -- given its leanings toward Moscow -- cannot afford to be caught in the crosshairs of the US and Europe.

Notably, in 2020, the United States, Department of Defence said that the Chinese military is "likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the mainland by force."

Even this year, in January, the Chinese Ambassador to US Qin Gang warned the US and said that the US could face "military conflict" with China over the status of Taiwan.

China's recent activities have only fuelled speculation about China's plan to invade Taiwan.

According to the think-tanker, if this is the case, then the Ukraine-Russia crisis serves as a litmus test for China.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's move in Ukraine is important for Xi's next move in Taiwan in two ways:

First, Ukraine considers itself a sovereign nation while Putin adopts a "Soviet Union mentality" similarly, to China's "Middle Kingdom mentality" under the "Chinese dream" of "rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" through "reunification with Taiwan."

The logic is to get all the foreign territories "back" into their country like Ukraine for Putin and Taiwan for Xi.

And the second one is that both the countries with their respective leaders are the chieftain of all things under their autocratic political apparatus.

According to the think tank, the Us has adopted a different approach towards Russia, as compared to North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Syria. The country has imposed financial sanctions and restrictions on a majority of Russian oligarchs and state-owned banking and financial service providers, as well as Putin and many of his associates, on the asset control office's Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List.

The US Department of Commerce has targeted Russia's oil refining sector. Furthermore, the Us has also imposed a ban on Russian alcoholic beverages, seafood and non-industrial diamonds. To counter Russia, the US even imposed economic sanctions on Belarus which supports Russia. Not the only US but the EU and Japan have also imposed financial restrictions on Russia and Belarus.

Russia's "most-favoured-nation" status was revoked on March 11 by the US along with its NATO allies, G7 and the EU, this was considered a major blow to Russia's economy.

Notably, the international communities' reaction toward Russia's military operations carries a strong message for China.

Ukraine-Russia crisis feared the US that there is the possibility that China could also use the same tactics as Russia and could attack Taiwan. Responding to the question of whether "the US would come to Taiwan's defence in the event of an attack by China, Biden in October answered, "Yes, we have a commitment to do that."

Learning from the Ukraine-Russia crisis, China would be cautious to take any further steps against Taiwan, a think tank reported.