But the 50 per cent premium that Royal Dutch Shell agreed to pay this week in a stock and cash deal to acquire smaller rival BG says a lot about Shell's expectations for a swift recovery in oil prices.
The beauty of the deal and the upside, though, won't be in the bold bet turning good, say investors and analysts as they urge Shell to use the deal as a opportunity to review its portfolio and geography.
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Analysts from Barclays agreed that because the BG deal brings Shell rich reserves and production outlook in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico, it hoped it would prompt the company to slow down or relinquish less competitive assets.
"This includes high breakeven projects such as Shell's heavy oil portfolio in Canada, assets difficult to develop such as those in the Arctic and projects in geopolitically unstable regions such as those in Iraq and onshore Nigeria," it said.