Nawaz's battle ahead

Pakistan has delivered a clear mandate for the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). Under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif, the PML (N) has emerged the single largest party in parliament, capable of forming the government without support from a coalition partner. One of the country's leading industrialists and richest men, Sharif has been prime minister twice before and was overthrown in a coup when Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999. The decisive verdict puts the 63-year-old leader in a much stronger position than the outgoing Pakistan People's Party, which ruled for five years with a weak coalition that was often on the verge of collapse. Sharif takes office at a critical time in Pakistan’s ties with the West. Over the next 18 months, it will play a pivotal role in the disengagement of American, British and other Nato forces from Afghanistan. The PML (N) boss will face the task of reviving economic growth in the world’s second-most populous Muslim nation which has slowed to an annual average of 3% since 2008 as a power crisis shuts the grid for up to 18 hours a day. The nation ranks 146th out of 186 countries in the United Nations' human development index, a measure of living standards, health and education

Here are the five key challenges  before Premier Nawaz Sharif

Terrorism

The challenges facing Pakistan are primal. The biggest is how to tackle is terrorism. Sharif will have to bring this 'Frankenstein' under control, instead of aiming to get rid of it in a short time. The new Pakistan government should frame a comprehensive policy to tackle militancy and control the appalling spiral of violence.

Taliban: The violence during the polls this year itself has claimed more than 100 lives and shown the clout Taliban commands in the region. Moreover during Sharif’s tenure as Prime Minister in the 1990s, he not only supported the Taliban regime in Afghanistan but also tried to vastly increase the powers of his office while pushing aside Pakistan’s penal code in favour of an Islamic justice system. Although after returning from exile, Sharif admitted that the pro-Afghan Taliban policy he pursued when he was Prime Minister in the 1990s was a failure it is tough to say whether this time Sharif will take any comprehensive decision to deal with the Taliban menace.

Islamist extremist groups: Sharif, known to be personally very religious, has been in the past soft on Islamic extremism and failed to crack down on militants that pose a serious threat to Pakistan and other countries — chief among them the Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked groups. His party, which has ruled Punjab for the past five years, has not taken any clear action against the powerful Lashkar-e-Tayyeba terrorist group based in that Province, the group that is also blamed for the 2008 attack on the Indian city of Mumbai that killed 166 people.

Power crisis

Up to 20 hours of load-shedding a day is being reported across the provinces of Punjab and Baloch. The power crisis has not only made the lives of people of Pakistan miserable but also crippled industries across the country.  Pakistan’s failure to pay independent power producers and invest to raise its own capacity has blighted its economy, shaving up to 5% of GDP growth.

Up to a third of electricity is lost through line losses and theft. Such is the anger among the people that the next government could secure itself two straight terms if it can restore electricity or reduce outages.



Broken economy

Underutilized natural resources and rampant corruption has plagued the Pakistan economy which is at a miserable state with inflation pegged at  6.5% and forex rates at its worst where the US dollar stands at a record 100 Pakistani rupees.

The Current account deficit of  the country is close to almost $5 billion of which the part payback amount $2.84billion to IMF of the 2008 loan is crucial. Power shortages are crushing industry, the currency has crumbled.

The only hope from Nawaz  is the fact that he and his party come with a reputation for economic competence, where Sharif himself is known to be pro-business and hold a pro capitalist ideology.

Corruption

Corruption in the country stands deep rooted right from the Premier levels in the Judiciary to the Village administrations. The Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Pakistan in 2012 as the 34th most corrupt country in the world.

Many scams across sectors as the The Pakistan Steel Mills (Rs.26 billion scam); National Insurance Company Limited scandal, Bribery and corruption in Pakistan International Airlines which caused losses of $500 million, Embezzlement in Pakistan Railways causing massive financial losses, NATO containers' case where 40 containers heading for ISAF in Afghanistan went missing, Rental power projects corruption and many other have been revealed by various journalists and news agencies over the years.

The major challenge for Sharif will be to get various of the ex-ministers, bureaucrats and judicial officers of the previous governments to be brought under book who have been tainted as corrupt.

Army

Decision on Musharraf biggest challenge:  According to legal experts, there are chances that some international powers may influence the upcoming newly elected government to acquit Musharraf in the treason case. On the other hand if denied a fair trial the move may be seen as a personal vendetta by Sharif who was ousted out of power in 1999 by an army coup led then by Musharraf himself.

The army has taken a much less political role under current head General Ashfaq Kayani, who voted early and publicly in Saturday’s poll—a surprising sight in a country ruled for more than half its life by the military.  Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s term is also slated to end later this year and only the new leadership of the army would decide its proximity or distance from the govt.

Delinking the ISI from various terrorist activities especially in the province of POK has been a repeated demand from the Pakistani govt, however given the military’s stronghold it has never really taken cognizance of the issue.