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Nikkei eases from 7-month high, yen supports exporters

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Reuters Tokyo
Last Updated : Jan 20 2013 | 3:02 AM IST

Japan's Nikkei share average eased from a seven-month high on Monday, ending a three-day rally on profit taking after the index briefly topped 9,700, but remains on track for its best February since 1991.

Investors upped their bets on a pullback, with the market in heavily overbought territory.

A nine-month low for the yen against the dollar supported exporters, while Kansai Electric Power Co was the biggest%age loser on the Topix core 30 list after media reports that it would post a record net loss for the year ending March 31.

Firms like Honda Motor Co Ltd, Sony Corp, Canon Inc, and Panasonic Corp gained between 1.2 and 1.8% as the yen sank as far as 81.661 against the dollar.

Strength in the yen earlier this year battered Japanese exporters' earnings, which have also been hit by supply disruptions caused by last year's natural disasters in Japan and Thailand.

The benchmark Nikkei slipped 0.1% to 9,633.93 after touching an intraday high of 9,736.11.

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Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo, warned that a too rapid depreciation in the yen could also have harmful effects.

"If it goes too fast, too far, then it will definitely destroy the trade balance. That's a negative outlook for the Japanese economy. It's always a balance," he said.

Nissan Motor Co CEO Carlos Ghosn said it was logical for the yen to keep weakening, given Japan's trade deficit and stagnant economy, adding that a "neutral" rate would be 90 to 100 yen to the dollar.

After the bell, Kansai Electric, Japan's second-largest utility, said it sees a net loss for the business year of 253 billion yen. The company, which relies particularly heavily on nuclear power, has most of its reactors offline a year after the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

The broader Topix index advanced 0.1% to 835.25.

Trading volume fell to 2.49 billion shares, down from 2.55 billion shares on Friday.

9,800 and beyond

The Nikkei has rallied 13.9% so far this year, buoyed by a run of strong U.S. economic data, the European Central Bank's nearly half a trillion euro liquidity injection and further easing steps by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

Market participants said that the benchmark was likely to trade up to 9,800 this week, but faces resistance above current levels as institutional investors take profit.

"The Nikkei has rallied to 9,700, which is very close to the benchmark level at the end of March last year. And it's a level that makes it easier for domestic institutional investors to take profit as they head into the end of financial year," said Yoshihiko Tabei, chief analyst at Kazaka Securities.

Other players cited technical indicators, saying that an imminent market correction may be on the horizon.

The benchmark Nikkei was deep in overbought territory, with the 14-day relative strength index at 80 . Seventy or above is considered overbought.

Investors were also hedging against a sharp pullback, with the Nikkei volatility index, a measure of implied risk over a one month period calculated using futures and option prices, up 3.7%.

"From a technical standpoint the market is certainly overheated and there are signs of overbuying. But from a supply and demand perspective, the weaker yen is supporting the market and there is room for the Nikkei to aim for 9,800 and beyond," said Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities.

Doshida said one catalyst for a market correction could be a further rise in oil prices, now trading near a 10-month high that poses a threat to the global economy and could spur inflation.

BNP Paribas recommended in a note on Friday that investors should sell call options on Nikkei dividend futures because their potential upside would be limited after they tracked the Nikkei higher, and buy a put spread on the Nikkei to guard against a potential market correction.

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First Published: Feb 27 2012 | 12:00 AM IST

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