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Nikkei posts longest winning streak in 13 months

Sixth straight day of gains on softer yen and expectations of easing from Bank of Japan

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Reuters Tokyo
Last Updated : Jan 25 2013 | 5:33 AM IST

Japan's Nikkei average edged up on Monday to mark its sixth straight day of gains as a softer yen and expectations of easing from the Bank of Japan outweighed the latest disappointing U.S. earnings from General Electric and McDonald's Corp .

The index fell more than 1 percent in the morning session as its 5.5 percent gain last week prompted investors to take profits.

The yen continued to weaken against the dollar in the afternoon, helping Honda Motor Co <7267.T> up 1.1 percent and Toyota Motor Co <7203.T> up 0.3 percent, in spite of fears of dwindling sales in China because of a boycott of Japanese products and the latter's recent recall of faulty cars.

The benchmark added 0.1 percent to 9,010.71, marking its sixth day of gains, its longest winning run since early September 2011.

"That the Nikkei is going up despite poor results from Microsoft, Google, Intel, and IBM, is a clear sign that it's being driven by a softer yen and hopes for easing from the Bank of Japan," said Norihiro Fujito, general manager of investment and research at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley.

"Expectations of BOJ action is borne out by the fact that real estate, financial and automakers' stock prices are rising."

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The financial sector <.IFINS.T> outperformed the benchmark, adding 0.6 percent, following closely by the real estate subindex's gain of 0.5 percent.

The BOJ is widely expected to further ease monetary policy at its next policy meeting on October 30, and sources say it is likely to admit its target of 1 percent inflation will be unachievable for several years.

Japan's exports tumbled more than expected in the year to September, while manufacturers' confidence hit its lowest level since early 2010 in a sign a row with China was hurting the export-reliant economy already grappling with the global slowdown.

"It is looking like the BOJ have no choice but to extend or increase their existing easing programmes, given the pressure on them from various quarters," said Masato Futoi, head of cash equity trading at Tokai Tokyo Securities.

"We're also not seeing the Nikkei lose much because poor earnings have likely been priced in ahead of the season," he added.

Embattled consumer electronics firm Sharp Corp <6753.T> surged 7.4 p ercent after media reported the display maker was raising production capacity for its high-definition power-saving IGZO screens it hopes to sell to makers of ultrabook computers.

The broader Topix dropped 0.1 percent to 753.72, in moderate trade as volume was at 98.8 percent of its 90-day average.

Unpromising earnings

Although it is still early in the earnings season, six of the seven Nikkei companies that have reported quarterly results missed market expectations, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine. That compared with 54 percent missing analyst forecasts in the previous quarter.

Mitsubishi Corp <8058.T> lost 1.8 percent and was the second most-traded stock on the main board by turnover after the trading company made a hefty cut in its operating profit guidance.

Index heavyweight Fanuc Corp <6954.T> also sagged 2.5 percent to 12,870 yen after JPMorgan downgraded the industrial robot maker to 'neutral' from 'overweight' and slashed its price target by 23 percent to 11,500 yen, saying demand for its "robodrill" was likely to be limited this year, hurting revenue.

Komatsu Ltd <6301.T> shed 2.4 percent and Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd <6305.T> lost 1.8 percent after U.S. rival Caterpillar Inc said growth of its worldwide dealers' sales of heavy equipment in the three months through September slowed to 6 percent from 13 percent for the June-through-August period.

Shun Maruyama, chief Japan equity strategist at BNP Paribas, said last week's gains were unlikely to be sustained for long because the short-selling ratio was about 24 percent on a five-day moving average, below the 28 to 30 percent when short covering tends to emerge, while long-only investors remained sidelined.

"The Nikkei is likely to be boxed in a range of 8,500 to 9,000," he said.

But Fujito of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley said the Nikkei could continue edging up until the BOJ's meeting on October 30, and then suffer a sharp fall as investors take profits on an overheated market.

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First Published: Oct 22 2012 | 1:46 PM IST

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