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Oil down as looming Iran N-deal promises more supply

Reuters NEW YORK
Last Updated : Jul 14 2015 | 12:34 AM IST
Crude futures fell about one per cent on Monday as Tehran and world powers appeared to close in on a nuclear deal that would allow more Iranian oil into an oversupplied market, while tumbling US gasoline put further pressure on prices.

News of an unanimous agreement on a bailout deal that should keep Greece in the euro zone helped oil pare losses in European trade, though not by much.

Iran and Western negotiators were on the brink of a deal that would bring Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on the country's nuclear program, officials and diplomats said.

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Although analysts said it would take until 2016 before Iran returns to full-scale oil exports, most estimate that there would be an export jump of around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the short term. The global crude market already has a 2.6 million bpd surplus.

“It's all worries about supply now,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “It just spells glut, no matter how you look at it.” Brent crude futures were down 80 cents, or 1.4 per cent, at $57.93 a barrel at 10:55 am EDT (1455 GMT), tumbling nearly $2 at the session low.

US crude futures were off by 50 cents, or nearly 1 per cent, at $52.24.

Gasoline, which has often directed action in US crude over the past six weeks on signs of runaway fuel demand in the peak summer driving season, fell 2.4 per cent.

Tehran's state media said foreign ministers from Iran and six world powers will meet at 1900 GMT, three hours before the latest deadline for a nuclear deal expires. Several Western officials, however, said they were unaware of such a meeting.

European Council President Donald Tusk said euro zone leaders had “unanimously reached agreement” on a deal for Athens. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said the debt restructuring and medium-term financing deal was worth euro 35 billion ($38.7 billion).

With supply ample and economic risks growing, several banks lowered their oil price forecasts.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said US crude prices “could soon drop well below our $50 per barrel target” for the third quarter of 2015.

Commerzbank said a fall below $55 per barrel in Brent and below $50 per barrel in US crude was “conceivable”.

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First Published: Jul 14 2015 | 12:16 AM IST

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