Recession signs mount as central bank stems rouble losses

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Bloomberg
Last Updated : Dec 04 2014 | 12:18 AM IST
Russia's economic pain worsened as a measure of services dropped to the lowest point since May 2009 and the central bank attempted to stem the rouble's biggest slide in 16 years.

The rouble touched a record low for a fifth day as data showed a gauge of business activity fell to a worse-than-forecast 44.5 in November. The currency rebounded amid speculation the Bank of Russia intervened after a 16 per cent depreciation in six days, the most since the 1998 default. Wagers for interest-rate increases surged to a six-year high, while bonds of state-run VTB Bank sank on concern falling oil is straining lenders' finances.

The services data are "the lights of recession, which, like a train, is getting closer," Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske Bank A/S in Brondby, Denmark, said by e- mail. "Services is the first industry where the savings and the drop in consumer spending is seen."

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Russia's Economy Ministry acknowledged for the first time on Tuesday that the economy of the world's biggest energy exporter will fall into a recession next year, while a former central banker spoke of "some panic" in a financial system beleaguered by sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. The 39 per cent retreat in Brent crude since June's 2014 peak is curtailing budget revenue, about half of which comes from oil and gas industries.

The Bank of Russia said on Wednesday it sold $700 million on December 1, its first intervention since moving to a free float almost a month ago.

The central bank probably spent about $600 million to $1 billion defending the rouble on Wednesday, according to Alexander Myulberger, the head of foreign-exchange trading at BCS Financial Group in Moscow. The rouble weakened to a record 54.9090 after the release of the services data, before rebounding as much as 2.1 per cent and trading 1.9 per cent higher at 52.82 per dollar by 7:13 pm in Moscow.

Analysts have been wondering at what point the rouble's breakneck decline over the past few weeks would qualify as a threat to financial stability.

The rouble fell over 4 percent against the dollar on Tuesday, its biggest daily decline since 1998, after government forecasts projected a recession and a weak rouble in 2015.

It had crashed through the once-unthinkable level of 50 against the dollar on Friday, a day after OPEC stunned global energy markets by leaving production quotas unchanged despite crumbling oil prices.

Russian stock indexes were positive on Wednesday, lifted by global markets after Wall Street hit a new record high on Tuesday.

The rouble-based MICEX was up 1.3 percent at 1,592 points.

Earlier it had crossed the threshold of 1,600 points for the first time since March 2012, but retreated as a result of the rallying rouble.

The dollar-based RTS index was up 1 percent at 935 points, having a hit a five-year low of 914 in earlier trading.

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First Published: Dec 04 2014 | 12:11 AM IST

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