Russia's Ukraine invasion could begin next week, says US

White House battles Putin by disclosing his next possible moves

US President Joe Biden tried to send Vladimir Putin an ultimatum about the consequences of any invasion of Ukraine in an hour-long conversation that left both sides at an impasse and Russia’s intentions unclear.

Biden warned his counterpart in Moscow that Russia would face “severe costs.” For his part, the Russian leader accused the US of failing to provide him with security assurances he needs to back down.  

The Kremlin characterised the talks as businesslike and balanced. Briefings by both sides afterward stuck to familiar talking points, providing few clues on where things go from here.

Biden told Putin during the conversation – their first direct exchange since late December – that the US remains ready to find a diplomatic solution to the tensions over Russia’s military buildup near the Ukrainian border. The US has ratcheted up its rhetoric, asking Americans to leave Ukraine while making clear it won’t send in troops.

US officials continue to say they do not know Putin’s final intentions. Still, a senior administration official, speaking after Saturday’s call, said there was a distinct possibility that Russia may proceed with military action and there had been no fundamental change in that view.

The talks took place in an atmosphere of “unprecedented hysteria by American officials about Russia’s allegedly imminent invasion of Ukraine,” Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters. Putin told Biden that U.S. responses to his demands for security guarantees don’t address the Kremlin’s key concerns about preventing further NATO expansion, Ushakov said.

The White House and the Kremlin said Putin and Biden agreed their officials would stay in contact in the coming days.

The Pentagon on Saturday denied Russia’s claim that a US submarine was intercepted in Russian waters near the Kuril Islands. “There is no truth to the Russian claims of our operations in their territorial waters,” Navy Captain Kyle Raines, a spokesman for the US Indo-Pacific command, said by email.

The US and UK say Russia has massed about 130,000 troops close to Ukraine, raising fears of a potential three-pronged assault including from Crimea and via Belarus in the north. NATO has moved to reinforce defences in eastern European member states. Russian officials accuse the West of undermining the country’s security by drawing Ukraine closer to NATO and say troop movements on Russian territory are an internal matter.

Putin spoke separately with the leaders of France and Belarus on Saturday prior to his call with Biden. Russia and Belarus on 10 February started their largest joint military drills in Belarus for years, including near the Ukrainian border, while six Russian landing craft have been moved to the Black Sea for naval exercises that begin Sunday.

The land exercises are due to end 20 February. Both countries have said the drills are purely defensive and that forces will return to base once they are finished.

Ukraine’s foreign minister says situation ‘under control’

There’s been no “pivotal change” in the situation along Ukraine’s border and occupied territories in the past few days, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Sunday. Ukraine “continues to actively work with our partners and inside the country,” Kuleba said, adding that diplomacy remains the only way to resolve the crisis. “Ukraine is not alone. The situation remains under control, and Ukraine is ready for to any scenarios.”

US’ Ukraine response being watched in Asia, says Blinken

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the world’s response to the Ukraine crisis was being watched by “others,” in a pointed reference to China’s expansive territorial claims in Asia. “Others are watching, others are looking to all of us to see how we respond,” Blinken told reporters after meeting with the Quad foreign ministers in Melbourne.