 "South Block is looking forward to Donald Trump as US President")
American voters are doing what Indians did in 2014 – elect an outsider. While the American establishment, particularly its journalists grapple with their shock of a Donald Trump victory, just as many among Indian journalists found it difficult to digest a Narendra Modi victory two-and-a-half years back, the Indian foreign policy minders, whatever their personal distaste might be for Trump’s misogyny and his anti-immigrant stand, think his victory could be a blessing in disguise.
South Block has been apprehensive that a Hillary Clinton win could end India's de-hyphenation with Pakistan that New Delhi has achieved in recent years in the way the sub-continental rivals are viewed in the US capitals. De-hyphenation refers to the US administration looking at its relations with New Delhi and Islamabad in different silos and not through the prism of India and Pakistan's bilateral relations. The US administrations, particularly under George W Bush and then Barack Obama as well, had split the desk that had dealt with US relations with India and Pakistan.
There have, however, been recent efforts to have one desk to handle India-Pakistan relations. Some in South Block believe an era of India-Pakistan hyphenation will be revived during the Clinton administration. She has stronger ties and more invested in West Asia than Trump. Clinton, unlike Trump, also doesn't have as strong a position on terrorism emanating from the region. China, Pakistan's all weather friend', has done its bit in recent months to re-hyphenate India and Pakistan during discussions on the possibility of admitting India into the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Here again, Trump's distaste for the Chinese is stronger than Clinton's.
A Trump presidency will largely be an uncharted territory. American political observers are unsure what Trump brings to the foreign policy table, but it is evident from his election speeches that Trump believes its China, and not Russia, that the US really needs to worry about. This could also be good news for India as it tries to build alliances with Japan . There is expectation that the Trump administration, with its intent to focus its energies on China, could look for forging stronger ties with India. In recent years, New Delhi has pursued reaching out to China's neighbours like Japan, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries. There have also been talks of a US-Japan-India-Australia quad in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, primarily aimed at shaping a security architecture to contain the rise of China.
Trump also has a more aggressive position on the threat posed by emergence of ISIS and on terrorism. While all nation states work on the principles of national interest which is dynamic and where there aren’t any permanent enemies or friends, it is more likely that Trump would be less tolerant towards Pakistan's harbouring of a terror infrastructure within its territory. This could mean that the Trump administration would be less prickly about human rights violations by Indian security forces in Kashmir.
A Trump presidency could, if New Delhi were to play its cards well, lead to cutting down of US aid to Pakistan and its sale of arms to Islamabad.