Who will be Nepal's new PM? In Oli vs Prachanda, it's advantage India

Who will be Nepal’s new prime minister? What is unfolding in Kathmandu is akin to the TV show Kaun Banega Crorepati, as games begin in the Himalayan nation to break parties, win over rivals, and eliminate adversaries.
 
With Nepal’s Supreme Court ruling that Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli’s abrupt December 2020 dissolution of Parliament was unconstitutional and ordering the House to be called into session before March 8, there is furious activity in Nepal.
 
Oli has announced that he will not resign and face Parliament. He has begun meeting allies in the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) to review the situation. The other faction of the NCP, led by former PM Pushpakamal Dahal (Prachanda), is also seeking out other alliance partners, as is the Nepali Congress and other parties in Parliament — because it is clear now that there will be no general election and the new PM will emerge from a realignment of forces/parties in Parliament.

 

So, what happened earlier
 
The current situation is a product of a fractured ruling party, divided polity, and contested political leadership.
 
The vertical split in the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) was inevitable because it was an artificial alliance of two variants of the Marxist-Leninist ideology; there was a bitter rivalry between two unrelenting leaders — Prachanda who led the Maoists in the civil war and set the stage for transformation in Nepal and K P Oli (United Marxist Leninist) who created the tsunami of nationalism to sweep the polls on a largely anti-India sentiment. The merger of the two parties and power-sharing on the basis of votes won was at the root of the “two-and-a-half years each agreement” between Oli and Prachanda becoming untenable. Key external actors were President B D Bhandari and Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi. For China, it was imperative to maintain unity in the NCP, which helped it to establish primacy in Nepal over India.

 
The numbers
 
Judging by the size of rallies the two leaders are addressing, they are evenly matched. But the support base of leaders in both Houses of Parliament that is more important. Also, cannot be ignored is the presence of the NCP in provincial governments — the split has destabilised six of the seven provincial governments and these, in turn, are anxious about how the chips will stack up in Parliament as this can impact their own future.
 
In December, when the House of Representatives was dissolved, the decks were stacked in favour of Prachanda: Not only did he have a better chance of retaining the party name and Sun symbol, he had support of 300 of the 441 Central Committee members and 100 of the 176 lawmakers. But the Oli faction recovered smartly: Technically, there is no split in the party although Oli has been forced to step down from as co-chair of the NCP and leader of the parliamentary party; he now remains an ordinary member. But then, he continues to be the PM, with the ability to distribute loaves and fishes.

 
Arguably the kingmaker is the Nepali Congress Party, the second-largest party in the Lower House, with 63 seats. Ex-PM Baburam Bhattarai has joined the Janata Samajbadi Party, the third largest. This is an amalgamation of various disaffected groups and individuals, who have joined up in a flexible ideological grouping. If Prachanda and Bhattarai join hands, it will hard for Oli to fight off this pincer movement. But Oli has his own helpline: The Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Nepali Congress. Loyalties are constantly changing, so it is hard to assess exact numbers.
 
The implications for India
 
For the record, India continues to swear by a stable government in democratic Nepal. But if we’re to be completely honest, a government that is too stable doesn’t really suit India. A case in point is the Oli government (before his December bombshell). Then India was faced with the prospect of a PM with a two-thirds majority continuing for five years with the full backing of China. That spell is now broken. From an undivided Communist government, Nepal will likely have a divided Communist government, backed by predominantly democratic forces (i.e Nepali Congress on one end of the spectrum, and the Janata Samajbadi Party on the other).

 
With the fulcrum of power moving slightly more in India’s favour, there is reason in New Delhi to be cautiously optimistic, whoever the prime minister is, come March 8.