World coronavirus dispatch: Estimating the impact on US, China economies

A Nikkei survey of 29 economists predicts that China's economy may contract by 3.7 per cent in Jan-March quarter.

Cases of coronavirus continue to rise at an alarming pace in the US and parts of Europe. Meanwhile, efforts to find a cure are being strengthened. Johnson & Johnson on Monday signed a $1 billion deal (https://bre.is/Nf9ogeVk) with the US government to produce and distribute 1 billion vaccine doses by 2021. 

Let that be clear that there is, as of date, no cure for Covid-19 virus, which is known to cause severe respiratory ailment. Patients tested positive are put under a 14-day quarantine, some with the added support of ventilators, in the hope that the bodies would fight the virus on its own.

In the J&J deal, the US will put forth $420 million. A similar deal is struck with Medora Inc, which has just begun testing its drug candidate on humans. The vaccines are still about 15-18 months away.

Let’s look at the global statistics:

Total confirmed cases: 800,049

Change Over Yesterday: 67,896

Total Deaths: 37,878

Total Recovered: 166,768

Nations with most cases: US (164,610), Italy (101,739), Spain (87,956), China (82,240), and Germany (67,051)

Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center 

US economy hit

Goldman Sachs predicts a far deeper hit of the coronavirus in the US. It forecasts that the country’s economy will shrink by annually, minus 34 per cent in the second quarter, while unemployment could soar 15 per cent. Recovery, however, is expected in the third quarter. Read more here

China output may contract

A Nikkei survey of 29 economists predicts that China's economy may contract by 3.7 per cent in January-March quarter and will slow to 3.3 per cent growth for all of 2020. Over 80,000 cases have reported from China since the virus was first identified in the Wuhan province in December. Read more here

Emirates bailout

The UAE will infuse money in state-owned Emirates, the largest airlines by international routes, to help it shield from the coronavirus fallout. The exact size of the financial aid was not disclosed. International Air Transport Association, which represents 290 airlines, estimates the industry may suffer more than $250 billion in lost revenue this year. Read more here

Facebook deems Brazilian prez’s video as misinformation 

In an unprecedented move, Facebook deleted a video message by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, which it deemed as misinformation. Bolsonaro reportedly said in the video that “hydroxychloroquine is working in all places,” whereas in reality the drug is still undergoing trials. Read more here

UK deaths more than official figures

The National Statistics office of the UK has evidence of more deaths due to the coronavirus in England and Wales, than stated officially. The agency said in at least 210 death cases, Covid-19 was cited a potential factor by the attending doctor compared to the official death figure on 170 people. Read more here

Australian sops

Continuing measure for the corporate sector, Australia’s stock exchange has relaxed rules to fund-raise. It is now allowing companies to raise up to 25 per cent of their market capitalisation in the form of new equity from select investors. Read more here

Specials

How Unilever is coping

The Economist talks to Alan Jope, the CEO of Unilever, on disruptions and way ahead for the world’s largest FMCG company. In this rich interview, Jope says that work from home is easy, leave on-ground challenges to country heads, and brace for stronger online demand. He has four guiding principles: “look after people; look after supply; look after demand; look after cash.” Read more here

No touching and no actors, as advertisers confront life in isolation

Scenes of hand-shakes, bar hugs and crowds cheering at a stadium are disappearing from the new commercials coming to the fore, as companies come to grips with public health orders to self-isolate. Ads that were in the works have been shelved and campaigns have to be reworked on a short timeline. Meanwhile, with so much of the world on lockdown, it’s not exactly easy to shoot new commercials. Read more here

Why Taiwan has become a problem for WHO
 

Taiwan is seen as one of the few places in the world which has successfully stemmed the spread of the coronavirus without resorting to draconian measures. However, despite its efforts, it is still effectively locked out of membership in the World Health Organization (WHO) due to its complex relationship with China. Read more here

Mathematics of predicting the course of coronavirus

Computer simulations and data science models are being used in the US to predict the spread of coronavirus, with a promise to help the authorities stay ahead in terms of preparedness. However, it is far from being adopted by administrative agencies. Read how this is done.

Why Mexico has so few cases compared with the US
 

The disparity reflects, in part, a time lag. Mexico did not report its first case until Feb. 27 — a month after the virus was detected in US. Also, it is relying less on tests, and more on its own disease modelling, to guide its response to the pandemic. Its approach is more of a calculated bet. Read more here