The world economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area and emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.
A plurality of 38 per cent of those surveyed this week described the global economy as worsening, more than double the number who said that in the last poll in July and the most since September 2012, when Europe was mired in a recession.
Much of the concern is again focused on the euro area: Almost two-thirds of those polled said its economy was weakening while 89 per cent saw disinflation or deflation as a greater threat there than inflation over the next year. Respondents said the European Central Bank and the region's governments were making the situation worse by pursuing too-tight policies, and fewer expressed confidence in ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Europe isn't the only source of concern in the global economy, according to the quarterly poll of 510 investors, traders and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers. More than half of those contacted said conditions in the BRIC economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China - were getting worse, compared with 36 per cent who said so in July.
China's slowdown
China's slowdown deepened in October, as factory output rose 7.7 per cent from a year earlier, the second-weakest pace since 2009, a government report on Thursday showed.
The sole bright spot was the US. Just under two-thirds said the world's largest economy was improving while roughly half said US markets would be among those offering the best returns over the next year. China's and India's markets were a distant second at 22 per cent each.
"In comparison to the other major economies, we are head and shoulders the strongest of them all," said Brian Dolan, who took part in the poll and is chief market strategist for DriveWealth.com, an online investment broker in Chatham, New Jersey.
Unemployment in the US dropped in October to the lowest level in six years and employers added more than 200,000 workers to payrolls for a ninth consecutive month, based on figures released on November 7 by the Labor Department in Washington.
Disinflation worries
The US, though, wasn't immune to the growing nervousness among investors about slowing increases in consumer prices. Forty-seven per cent said disinflation or deflation was a greater risk for the US than inflation over the next year, up from 31 per cent in July.
Inflation was 1.4 per cent in the US in September, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index that the Federal Reserve (Fed) prefers. That was the 29th straight month it had been below the Fed's two per cent target. Still, roughly half of those polled described US monetary policy as about right, while 45 per cent saw it as too accommodative.
The ECB is having more difficulty than the Fed in meeting its inflation objective. Consumer prices in the euro area rose 0.4 per cent from a year earlier in October, up from a five-year low of 0.3 per cent in September, based on data from the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg. That's less than a quarter of the ECB's target of just below two per cent.
ECB policies
A plurality of 43 per cent described the ECB's monetary policies as too restrictive, up from 31 per cent in July. ECB President Draghi's popularity with investors took a knock in response. Fifty-nine per cent viewed him favourably in the latest poll, down from 74 per cent in July.
"The ECB measures are coming up too little and too late," Dolan said.
Draghi last week stepped up efforts to boost inflation back towards the ECB's goal by suggesting the bank will buy about ^1 trillion ($1.25 trillion) of assets.
The euro region's fiscal policies are also too tight, according to 57 per cent of those surveyed. Germany, the currency zone's linchpin economy and its largest, has pushed back against lobbying by French and Italian officials, who want to pursue easier budget policies.
Merkel's standing
German Chancellor Merkel's standing plunged in the poll. Forty-five per cent saw her policies as favourable to investors, down from 72 per cent in July and her lowest rating in almost three years. European investors were the most pessimistic about her policies.
The region's leaders may come in for another round of criticism at this week's Group of 20 meeting in Brisbane, Australia. US Treasury Secretary Jacob J Lew said on November 12 that the euro area needed to do more to avoid a "lost decade" and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the same day that "the spectre of economic stagnation" was haunting Europe.
Japan's economy was seen as mostly stable by survey respondents, though it too was said to face a danger of disinflation and deflation. Almost three-quarters viewed that as a greater threat to the Asian nation than inflation over the next year, up from 58 per cent in July.
The poll of Bloomberg customers was conducted on November 11-12 by Selzer & Co, a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
A plurality of 38 per cent of those surveyed this week described the global economy as worsening, more than double the number who said that in the last poll in July and the most since September 2012, when Europe was mired in a recession.
Much of the concern is again focused on the euro area: Almost two-thirds of those polled said its economy was weakening while 89 per cent saw disinflation or deflation as a greater threat there than inflation over the next year. Respondents said the European Central Bank and the region's governments were making the situation worse by pursuing too-tight policies, and fewer expressed confidence in ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Also Read
"The euro-zone economy has deteriorated and will get worse if there are no fiscal policy actions from core European countries, mainly Germany," poll participant Sanwook Lee, a senior portfolio manager at Shinhan Bank in Seoul, said in an e-mail.
Europe isn't the only source of concern in the global economy, according to the quarterly poll of 510 investors, traders and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers. More than half of those contacted said conditions in the BRIC economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China - were getting worse, compared with 36 per cent who said so in July.
China's slowdown
China's slowdown deepened in October, as factory output rose 7.7 per cent from a year earlier, the second-weakest pace since 2009, a government report on Thursday showed.
The sole bright spot was the US. Just under two-thirds said the world's largest economy was improving while roughly half said US markets would be among those offering the best returns over the next year. China's and India's markets were a distant second at 22 per cent each.
"In comparison to the other major economies, we are head and shoulders the strongest of them all," said Brian Dolan, who took part in the poll and is chief market strategist for DriveWealth.com, an online investment broker in Chatham, New Jersey.
Unemployment in the US dropped in October to the lowest level in six years and employers added more than 200,000 workers to payrolls for a ninth consecutive month, based on figures released on November 7 by the Labor Department in Washington.
Disinflation worries
The US, though, wasn't immune to the growing nervousness among investors about slowing increases in consumer prices. Forty-seven per cent said disinflation or deflation was a greater risk for the US than inflation over the next year, up from 31 per cent in July.
Inflation was 1.4 per cent in the US in September, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index that the Federal Reserve (Fed) prefers. That was the 29th straight month it had been below the Fed's two per cent target. Still, roughly half of those polled described US monetary policy as about right, while 45 per cent saw it as too accommodative.
The ECB is having more difficulty than the Fed in meeting its inflation objective. Consumer prices in the euro area rose 0.4 per cent from a year earlier in October, up from a five-year low of 0.3 per cent in September, based on data from the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg. That's less than a quarter of the ECB's target of just below two per cent.
ECB policies
A plurality of 43 per cent described the ECB's monetary policies as too restrictive, up from 31 per cent in July. ECB President Draghi's popularity with investors took a knock in response. Fifty-nine per cent viewed him favourably in the latest poll, down from 74 per cent in July.
"The ECB measures are coming up too little and too late," Dolan said.
Draghi last week stepped up efforts to boost inflation back towards the ECB's goal by suggesting the bank will buy about ^1 trillion ($1.25 trillion) of assets.
The euro region's fiscal policies are also too tight, according to 57 per cent of those surveyed. Germany, the currency zone's linchpin economy and its largest, has pushed back against lobbying by French and Italian officials, who want to pursue easier budget policies.
Merkel's standing
German Chancellor Merkel's standing plunged in the poll. Forty-five per cent saw her policies as favourable to investors, down from 72 per cent in July and her lowest rating in almost three years. European investors were the most pessimistic about her policies.
The region's leaders may come in for another round of criticism at this week's Group of 20 meeting in Brisbane, Australia. US Treasury Secretary Jacob J Lew said on November 12 that the euro area needed to do more to avoid a "lost decade" and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the same day that "the spectre of economic stagnation" was haunting Europe.
Japan's economy was seen as mostly stable by survey respondents, though it too was said to face a danger of disinflation and deflation. Almost three-quarters viewed that as a greater threat to the Asian nation than inflation over the next year, up from 58 per cent in July.
The poll of Bloomberg customers was conducted on November 11-12 by Selzer & Co, a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.