The heady days of 2007-08 are still a distant memory, but the outlook for the advertisement industry seems to be getting brighter. Media planners have started revising their rather gloomy forecast made at the beginning of this financial year.
Media planning and buying agency, Zenith Optimedia, is now saying that it expects the Indian advertisement industry to grow by 7.7 per cent this year. That may not be a sparkling number, but much better than the 6 per cent growth predicted at the beginning of the year. The agency, however, expects the global advertisement revenues to dip from 8.5 per cent in the previous year to 6.9 per cent.
| AD REVENUE: LOOKING BETTER | |||
| (In Rs crore) | Year | % growth | |
| 2008 | 2009 (projected) | ||
| Newspapers | 9,102 | 10,606 | 16.52 |
| Magazines | 1,142 | 442 | -61 |
| Television | 8,502 | 9,042 | 6.35 |
| Radio | 646 | 739 | 14.32 |
| Cinema | 146 | 146 | - |
| Outdoor | 1,492 | 1,596 | 6.97 |
| Internet | 350 | 455 | 30 |
| Total | 21,380 | 23,026 | 7.7 |
TAM India, the country’s leading TV viewership analysis firm, is even more optimistic. TAM India CEO L V Krishnan says the firm is revising its growth estimate for television ad revenues from single-digits to anywhere between 10 and 15 per cent Pavan Chandra, managing director, South & West, Zenith Optimedia, says the reason for the upturn is the heavy political and social advertising and the huge spends during the Indian Premier League. However, he is quick enough to add that the heady days of 2007-2008 were exceptional and now the growth rates seem to be back to the trend line.
Chandra says the mediums that are expected to do better include television, newspapers, magazines and radio, while the growth estimate for cinema, outdoor and the internet remains the same.
"The growth for India has not been hit as much as the global economy due to the high domestic savings rate coupled with a strong rural demand. As a result, most categories have seen a robust growth in advertising expenditure, barring real estate, airlines and some financial categories. We expect these sectors also to show signs of revival in the second half of 2009," Chandra says.
Globally, the agency covers 79 markets, and only 25 of these, including India and China, are seeing growth. India has in fact overtaken Norway, Mexico and the Netherlands to become the 14th largest advertising market, ZenithOptuimedia says.
On his part, TAM’s Krishnan says the slowdown has not affected the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector (the largest advertiser) as the sector’s top line grew at an average of close to 20 per cent. This has translated into a proportional increase in the advertising spend of FMCG companies. However, sectors like durables, aviation, education and retail have reduced their advertising spend. “If monsoons are normal, we hope to see the revival of these sectors and this will help the overall industry as well as the print ads to grow,” he says.