When the Eleventh Plan was made public, it came as manna from heaven for the overall education sector, with a four-fold increase in the budget outlay. The higher education segment was perceived as a clear beneficiary with the government significantly increasing the outlay, creating additional higher institutes of learning, laying an emphasis on a 36 per cent increase in the Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) by 2015, defining concrete steps to refine the quality of education in colleges, and proposing ways to increase faculty.
Now, the government has added to the joy of educationists by making the right noises. It has increased the overall Plan budget for higher education by Rs 2,000 crore, to take the overall figure to Rs 9,600 crore. The government has allocated Rs 2,113 crore for IITs and NITs, which includes a provision of Rs 450 crore for new IITs and NITs.
These moves are making academicians believe the government will live up to its promises this time around. Their concerns are not unfounded. The National Knowledge Commission (NKC) – under the chairmanship of Sam Pitroda – had acknowledged that “…there is, in fact, a quiet crisis in higher education in India that runs deep. It is not yet discernible simply because there are pockets of excellence, an enormous reservoir of talented young people and an intense competition in the admissions process…the reality is that we have miles to go…”
The euphoria, however, needs to be tempered. Consider this. Indian higher education is the third largest in the world, with over 14 million students enrolled and over half-a-million teachers. However, India’s GER (defined as the ratio of number of pupils enrolled, regardless of age, and divided by number of persons in the relevant age group) for higher education is currently around 11 per cent, which is way too low when compared to the world average of 23 per cent and 36.5 per cent for countries in transition or over 55 per cent for developed countries.
The proportion of the country’s population (age group 18-24) that enters the world of higher education is just around 7 per cent (half the average for Asia). Moreover, in India, urban GER is about three times higher at 22.56, when compared with rural (7.51). For women, it is four times higher (22.56 for urban as compared to 5.67 for rural).
If the government wants to come anywhere close to its desired GER numbers, both the outlay for infrastructure and the number of universities would have to proportionately increase. India needs at least 1,500 universities (it has just around 430 currently) to attain its gross enrolment ratio (GER) target of 15 per cent by 2012. This would imply adding an estimated 6 million students by 2012 (currently estimated to be around 15 million).
Sudhanshu Bhushan, a professor at the National University of Educational Planning and Administration, New Delhi, suggests if one assumes 10 colleges for a one lakh population in the 18-24 year age group, by 2012, the country will require 14,302 general colleges – implying an additional 2,602 colleges in the 11 th Plan.
However, there’s a crucial related issue of vacant teacher positions which will become more acute once the number of colleges increase. For instance, the overall level of vacant positions in state universities stands at 58 per cent, and is much higher for Lecturers and Readers. If there’s a supply-demand gap, the government’s ambitious plans to increase GER may come to naught.