TAMing the new viewers

Television viewership data is churning as TAM expands its universe. What does it mean for broadcasters and marketers?

If you thought a twist in the tale was responsible for the sudden jump in viewership ratings of a couple of television serials in January 2009 over the last two weeks of December 2008, think again. On Star Plus, Bidaai, the story of the dark-skinned member of a family, has seen a 9 per cent jump in its television rating points (a measure of viewership and time spent on a show). Meanwhile, Naagin’s TVR on Zee TV has seen a 3 per cent increase. The spike in ratings is in the age group of four plus in the socio-economic category CDE — which is the lower income group.

According to media specialist Dentsu Media, which has done the analysis, the development is the result of TAM Media Research updating its television viewing universe to include the changes in size and structure of the population represented in each of its markets. Dentsu derives its conclusion from the latest TAM data that shows a 21 per cent jump in TV homes in the CD and E socio-economic classes.

The impact of the growth in this category, that is, cable and satellite TV (C&S) viewers in the CD and E audience, will also be felt on cricket ratings, says Sanjoy Chakrabarty, Dentsu Media’s chief operating officer, who spearheaded the study on the implications of the revised TAM universe.

Cricket was picked as the game’s popularity cuts across all markets, age bands and socio-economic classifications. “It’s a neutral base to evaluate television viewing trends in India,” says Chakrabarty. The Dentsu study states that the average TVR for cricket, which dropped from 10.14 in 2004 to 5.2 in 2008, will rise again to touch six.

Not only CD and E homes are acquiring cable TV connections, the forecast is also based on the introduction of three new markets — Bihar, Assam and Maharashtra (for Maharashtra — towns with less than one million population) — in TAM, which will be tracked from February.

“The segments CD and E contribute to 75 per cent of the total population in the three new markets. Their contribution to viewership will hike cricket ratings,” says Chakrabarty. Viewers among the SEC CDE audiences, media experts say, spend a longer time watching cricket than, say, an SEC AB viewer pushing up its TVR.

Churn is on
To understand Dentsu’s highlights on the new TAM data, and how it affects marketers and broadcasters, take a quick look at the viewership changes it has recorded. For 2007, TAM based its update on the findings of the National Readership Survey 2006. There hasn’t been an NRS since, so the current update is based on census compounded annual growth rate for population.

The revised data captures the growth in TV ownership in Class I towns. (Class I towns have a population of 100,000 and more). The total TAM extrapolation is based on 187 million individuals. This number was 170 million in 2007-08, so total TV homes have grown by 10 per cent. Of this, 154 million are cable and satellite homes including digital homes — both conditional access system (CAS) and direct-to-home (DTH). While the C&S analogue homes have grown by 14 per cent, the digital TV number has jumped from 8 million to 13 million, a steep rise of 62 per cent. Clearly, broadcasters can no longer ignore the digital platforms.

Interestingly, though, it’s not the affluent SEC A that’s driving the digital growth. DTH and CAS have grown the most in the SEC B, C, D and E segments in the non-metros. C&S penetration growth rate has been the highest in Rajasthan, UP and Maharashtra.

Besides revising its data on TV homes, TAM is now expanding its panel size as well. “The idea is to go wider and deeper,” says TAM CEO L V Krishnan. For a start, new/local markets in the existing Class I reporting markets have been introduced. Pune and Ahmedabad have been added to the six metros that it used to cover.

The states, too, have been split further into finer segments. Punjab, which was part of the PHCHP (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh) market cluster earlier, will now be measured separately. Chhattisgarh, too, has been split from the Madhya Pradesh cluster. The changes have been effective from the first week of 2009.

In the next couple of months, the agency will include the one million plus markets in Bihar and the 0.5 million markets in Assam. The two states have been media dark areas as far as TV viewership monitoring is concerned. “Advertisers have been shooting in the dark in these markets. West Bengal was often used as the proxy for Assam even though they are very different. Measuring Assam will be a win-win for all,” says Rajat Basra, head, media (new initiatives) at Dentsu.

Chakrabarty explains why. Kerala generates 2,400 GRPs annually, attracting media investments close to Rs 150 crore. The Kerala and Assam markets are similar in size and profile. The consuming class in the markets (SEC ABC) is approximately 1.5 crore in Kerala and 1.1 crore in Assam. The consumption behaviour of mass products like shampoo and tea, and premium products like deodorants and chocolates is similar. “Now, Assam data will be available. It could help us unleash a latent demand in the market… maybe it is another Rs 150 crore story waiting to happen in 2009,” says Chakrabarty.

Similarly, TAM will soon start covering the smaller markets in Maharashtra — the move is being touted as an industry first to cover the semi-urban markets.

Rise of the regional
How will a growth in the chunk of CD and E category viewers and inclusion of the semi-urban market affect advertising spends of brands? “This will not change our evaluation parameters. In fact, we see the growth in the semi-urban and rural viewership as an opportunity. We believe we’ll be getting something more,” says Marico chief executive officer (consumer products) Saugata Gupta.

Anisha Motwani, executive vice-president of Max New York Life Insurance, says her brand will continue to advertise on television since it “remains the highest-reach medium across all SECs”.

However, with more CDE audiences tuning in, presence on the general entertainment channels might lead to more waste for a premium brand, she observes. “The challenge will be to see how to minimise wastage while garnering the reach and impact the brand needs through the GEC platform.”

In fact, even before the measurement percolates down to the under one-million plus markets, Dentsu’s study has thrown up interesting numbers based on the revised TAM universe. According to media experts at Dentsu, Zee Marathi scored 300 weekly GRPs before the amendment of the TAM universe on Maharashtra’s one million plus market cluster, which includes Pune, Nagpur and Nashik. Post-amendment, the channel weekly GRPs moved up to 318. However, in Pune as a stand-alone market (and not in a cluster with Maharashtra’s one million+ market), the total weekly GRP shot up to 437. This clearly indicates that in Pune, Marathi is the most preferred language, though in a cluster the fact gets overshadowed. Clearly, the introduction of new markets will have a positive impact on the regional channels in those markets, a finding broadcasters can exploit.

However, not every one is ecstatic about the revised TV homes data and the expanded peoplemeter households. (These will grow from 6,900 to 8,000 in the first quarter of 2009. The current 145 towns sample size will go up to 160 towns, says TAM.) Broadcasters complain that the revised data does little for their companies’ bottom lines.

“What’s the point of these updates when it does not benefit TV channel rates and revenues,” says Raj Nayak, CEO, NDTV Media, the company that manages ad sales for the news business of NDTV and sundry other channels.

C&S homes have grown from 20 million to 40 million and 80 million over the years. “But our effective ad rates have remained stagnant because of fragmentation and more competition. Advertisers still go by TVRs rather than reach or total viewership numbers. As a result, yields are down. It is a serious issue,” he says.

Agrees Multi-Screen Media (formerly Sony Entertainment Television) president Rohit Gupta: “Ad agencies do not accept the cost per thousand measurement. Their systems are attuned to CPRP (cost per rating point), which no longer gives the complete picture.” Needless to say, broadcasters have been fighting a losing battle with advertisers to pay more for a larger TV audience.

Media specialists at Dentsu point out that 100 GRPs in 2004 reached 23.7 million people while the same 100 GRPs in 2009 reach 33.1 million, albeit at a much higher cost. Dentsu analysis of Star Plus and and Zee shows that while Star Plus shows a dramatic drop of 70 per cent in TVRs in January 2009 over January 2004, Zee’s TVRs over the period have improved. However, in terms of the number of people these channels reach, the picture changes. Star Plus’ decline in reach is lower (at 40 per cent) than the drop in TVRs while Zee’s reach shows a whopping 267 per cent growth.

Obviously, if advertisers select channels/programmes only on the basis of average TVRs, they may miss out on the substantial ‘headcount’ that they deliver. Therefore, the cost per contact — reflecting the actual headcount reached — will be a more accurate representation of cost efficiencies, say Dentsu media experts.

Motwani says when an advertiser buys channels and programmes, the kind of time the relevant target audience is spending watching that programme becomes very critical. “Since TVR is a time-weighted factor and, therefore, accounts for the time being spent by the TG, I don’t think we can do away with it. Lower TVR and higher reach could mean that many people are sampling the programme but not staying with it,” she says. That is not the programming environment she wants for her brand.

Clearly, more people watching TV doesn’t mean that the relevant people are watching. Sujit Ganguli, ICICI Prudential’s marketing head, says TRPs have fallen 40 to 80 per cent. “A few years ago, a TRP of 10 was good, today a TRP of four is seen as good. Even though the base has gone up, less people are watching programmes. This is bad news for us. Making it worse is fragmentation. And we continue to pay more on cost per rating point.”

The debate on the relevant currency between the advertiser and broadcaster could continue, but the broadcaster, meanwhile, could see faster digitisation of C&S universe in a positive light. A digital box — CAS or DTH — means that bandwidth is not an issue and broadcasters may not need to spend crores of rupees on distribution as “placement fee”. “Instead they could spend on marketing to create pull for their content,” says TAM’s Krishnan.

In fact, the enhanced data could also help them create targeted content for platforms — digital versus analogue. For instance, on the free-to-air DTH platform of Doordarshan, Star India’s Star Utsav channel is doing very well. “They can offer more such options to viewers of different platforms,” adds Krishnan.

Based on the new data, will Sony be able to exploit its IPL cricket rights better and raise the bar on IPL to Rs 35 crore, up from Rs 15 crore last year for associate sponsor? Will regional channels of Maharashtra and West Bengal emerge much stronger on account of the new additions in the markets (Assam and Bihar have a huge chunk of Bengalis who can drive the numbers for Bengali content)?

Watch this space.

(With Byravee Iyer)