'Imports may be less than forecast'

India may import less wheat this year than the government's forecast of 5 million tonnes because of rising production and higher prices, a US Foreign Agricultural Service attache said.

India, the world's second-biggest wheat consumer, probably will import about 3 million tonnes in the marketing year that began in April as it seeks to build inventories, the attache said in a report posted at the weekend on the US Department of Agriculture Web site.

So far this year, India has contracted to buy only 511,000 tonnes at an average price of $326 a tonne. The government forecasts that domestic production will rise to 74.9 million tonnes during the year, 1.6 higher than a previous forecast. That's still too little to meet rising demand in the nation of more than 1 billion people, according to the report.

"Unless a dramatic increase in wheat yield takes place, wheat imports are here to stay,'' the attache said.

India's public distribution programme, which supplies grains at subsidised prices to the poor, acquired 11.1 million tonnes of wheat this marketing year, less than the expected 15 million tonnes, the attache said.

Measures taken to obtain the wheat included the banning of trading in wheat futures and monitoring private stockpiles.

Those steps "reduced wheat availability in the free market causing a premature strengthening of wheat prices this year," the attache said.