For the first time, India has a carryover stock of soybean for the next season despite almost half of its edible oil demand being met through imports. According to industry estimates, the country has more than 800,000 tonnes of soybean for the season beginning October.
Farmers, crushers and other market participants held stocks in anticipation of higher realisation, in case rain deficiency affects the current season’s crop and price escalates to a new high. Information about overseas crops also supported their move. According to an estimate by the Indore-based Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), farmers have held about half a million tonnes of beans while traders and crushers kept another 300,000 tonnes. Edible oil processors estimate the carryover stock to be more than 500,000 tonnes. It is difficult to calculate old inventories as farmers have been continuously offloading their massive stocks since the last fortnight, thereby, pushing arrivals.
Today, arrivals have increased by 50 per cent to about 100,000 bags (of 90 kg each) across the country as stockists have witnessed a favourable climatic condition for the current year’s crop. The rainfall deficiency will have no bearing on the current year’s crop, thus, marketmen anticipate this year’s crop to be equivalent to last year.
“We anticipate about 900,000 bags would have been held by farmers, traders and all other market participants for the next season,” said Rajesh Agarwal, Spokesperson, SOPA. The carryover stock assumes significance as farmers and stockists have started knowing about the use of overseas developments that affect prices of the crop and can plan a better use of their crop.