With factors such as timely rains and increase in sowing area likely to raise the overall paddy production, West Bengal's agriculture department estimates this years' aman rice production to cross 10 million tonnes, against about 9.2 million tonnes last year.
The sowing area for the crop has increased from about 3.9 million hectares last year to about 4.1 million hectares this season, according to the government data. However, farmers to a large extent are dependent on timely water supply from Damodar Valley Corporation for irrigation, given erratic monsoon showers.
For example, while heavy downpour in early May was good for paddy cultivation, a similar rainfall in late October, when the aman crop is harvested, can cause a lot a damage.
The state agriculture department hopes that this year the average yield may increase from nearly Rs 2,350 kg per hectare to about Rs 2,575 kg per hectare, on account of early monsoons, which left the soil favourable for sowing. Farmers in the state generally grow potato and rice folowing a crop cycle.
Due to a bumper potato crop this year, majority of them suffered losses to the extent that some of them had to sell their entire savings to repay debts, said Paresh Nath Ghosh, a farmer in Burdwan district.
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While the cost of seed for one bigha of paddy cultivation is about Rs 100-250 a kg, that of potato is Rs 5,000 -8,000.
Generally, profit in potato cultivation goes as high as Rs 5,000 per bigha and, for paddy, it is hardly Rs 2,000 per bigha. At present, farmers are not getting more than Rs 30 for a 50 kg potato bag in cold storages, which is much less than the cost of production.
"Farmers here have lost all their savings in potato cultivation. Just a few days ago, one of the farmers committed suicide on account of loss he suffered from potato cultivation," said Ghosh.
With potato cultivation causing huge losses to farmers, good rice cultivation is the only hope for hundreds of small and marginal farmers in the state.