SAIL
Reco price: Rs 93;
Target price: Rs 97
In line with the increase in price forecasts for steel in India, analysts have pushed up their average realisation assumptions for SAIL for FY12-FY14. Morgan Stanley’s (MS) profit forecasts for SAIL also get a boost from its reduced coking coal price assumptions. It has slightly reduced sales volume numbers for FY12, reflecting the trend so far. However, FY13 and FY14 have been pushed up slightly in line with analysts’ views that the Rourkela project should start commercial sales by Q4 FY13 versus earlier assumption of Q1 FY14. MS has raised its price target to Rs 97 from Rs 90. Lack of positive triggers in the near term will limit upsides in the stock price. Maintain Equalweight.
- Morgan Stanley
SUZLON ENERGY
Reco price: Rs 28;
Target price: Rs 20
In October 2009, Suzlon financed the Big Sky Project of Edison Mission Energy. This loan has a five-year final maturity. Edison filed Form 10-K for 2011 at end-February, which states that specific events, including project performance, may trigger earlier repayment of this loan. It also mentions that based on the operating history of the project, the loan could mature as early as February 2013.
While Suzlon now expects to receive the Edison payment in H1 FY13 (April–October 2012), analysts feel it might not receive the $211-million payment from Edison by June 2012 when the first FCCB repayment of $306 million (Rs 1,550 crore) is due. Suzlon’s (ex-REpower) cash flow analysis suggests a severe cash crunch. Analysts believe the company will be short by Rs 750 crore in June 2012 for the first tranche of the FCCB payment and by Rs 3,000 crore for FY13 in meeting all its repayment obligations. Analysts continue to see an equity dilution risk, with Suzlon likely to convert around 50 per cent of FCCBs into equity. Underweight.
- HSBC Global Research