TATA MOTORS
Reco price/date: Rs 268/April 11;
Current/target price: Rs 278.15/Rs 353
JLR March retail sales at 53,772 units (up 16 per cent year-on-year/100 per cent month-on-month) beat our estimate of 52,000. We highlight that the sharp month-on-month jump is a very typical March (and September) trait as it's the best month for retails in the UK due to the number plate change. UK accounts for around 19 per cent of annual retails, while it accounts for 33-34 per cent of retails in Sep/March. Post the better than expected retails, we see upside risk to our earlier estimate for March wholesales to be announced tomorrow; our estimate is 40,000 units (up 10 per cent year-on-year/13 per cent month-on-month); consensus 38,000. Our thesis of JLR volumes surprisingly positively (on the more profitable models) seems to be playing out. We reiterate BUY.
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Reco price/date: Rs 36/April 10;
Current/target price: Rs 35.35/Rs 51
TVS announced a long term co-operation agreement with BMW Motorrad.Under the said agreement, TVS and BMW Motorrad will develop and Produce new series of motorcycle in the 200cc-500cc category. Both TVSM and BMW Motorrad do not have products in the 200cc-500cc segment and the tie-up provides them an opportunity to explore this space. For TVS,the deal is a long term positive, with no significant impact in the near to medium term. Given current slowdown, TVS's volumes are under pressure. Over the medium to long term though, improvement in consumer sentiment and new launches should aid volume growth for the company. We thereby maintain our long term positive outlook on the stock with BUY rating.
PAGE INDUSTRIES
Reco price/date: Rs 3,702/April 10;
Current/target price: Rs 3,611.25/Rs 3,900
Market share gains and volume growth would remain in focus for Page in FY14, as per our recent management meeting. While the government's excise duty waiver on textiles should aid margins, the company is not looking to expand margins beyond 20-21 per cent levels and would reinvest the savings to achieve higher volumes. While we continue to like Page for its leadership in the niche innerwear segment, we find current valuations rich. We roll over to a revised March 2014 Target price and maintain HOLD ratings.
KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS LTD
Reco price/date: Rs 88/April 11;
Current/target price: Rs 88.50/Rs 112
We have valued Kolte Patil on discounted cash flow basis for its high-visibility residential projects and townships. For the purpose of valuation, we have only taken the projects of the company where construction has commenced or the necessary approvals are in place. The Price Value of foreseeable cash flows of these projects alone is estimated to be Rs 850 crore which works out to Rs 112 per share. At market price of Rs 88, the stock trades at less than seven times FY13E PAT of Rs 106 crore thus offering significant value. BUY.
Reco price/date: Rs 268/April 11;
Current/target price: Rs 278.15/Rs 353
JLR March retail sales at 53,772 units (up 16 per cent year-on-year/100 per cent month-on-month) beat our estimate of 52,000. We highlight that the sharp month-on-month jump is a very typical March (and September) trait as it's the best month for retails in the UK due to the number plate change. UK accounts for around 19 per cent of annual retails, while it accounts for 33-34 per cent of retails in Sep/March. Post the better than expected retails, we see upside risk to our earlier estimate for March wholesales to be announced tomorrow; our estimate is 40,000 units (up 10 per cent year-on-year/13 per cent month-on-month); consensus 38,000. Our thesis of JLR volumes surprisingly positively (on the more profitable models) seems to be playing out. We reiterate BUY.
-Antique Stock Broking
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Reco price/date: Rs 36/April 10;
Current/target price: Rs 35.35/Rs 51
TVS announced a long term co-operation agreement with BMW Motorrad.Under the said agreement, TVS and BMW Motorrad will develop and Produce new series of motorcycle in the 200cc-500cc category. Both TVSM and BMW Motorrad do not have products in the 200cc-500cc segment and the tie-up provides them an opportunity to explore this space. For TVS,the deal is a long term positive, with no significant impact in the near to medium term. Given current slowdown, TVS's volumes are under pressure. Over the medium to long term though, improvement in consumer sentiment and new launches should aid volume growth for the company. We thereby maintain our long term positive outlook on the stock with BUY rating.
-Kotak Securities Ltd
PAGE INDUSTRIES
Reco price/date: Rs 3,702/April 10;
Current/target price: Rs 3,611.25/Rs 3,900
Market share gains and volume growth would remain in focus for Page in FY14, as per our recent management meeting. While the government's excise duty waiver on textiles should aid margins, the company is not looking to expand margins beyond 20-21 per cent levels and would reinvest the savings to achieve higher volumes. While we continue to like Page for its leadership in the niche innerwear segment, we find current valuations rich. We roll over to a revised March 2014 Target price and maintain HOLD ratings.
-Religare Institutional Research
KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS LTD
Reco price/date: Rs 88/April 11;
Current/target price: Rs 88.50/Rs 112
We have valued Kolte Patil on discounted cash flow basis for its high-visibility residential projects and townships. For the purpose of valuation, we have only taken the projects of the company where construction has commenced or the necessary approvals are in place. The Price Value of foreseeable cash flows of these projects alone is estimated to be Rs 850 crore which works out to Rs 112 per share. At market price of Rs 88, the stock trades at less than seven times FY13E PAT of Rs 106 crore thus offering significant value. BUY.
-Axis Securities