A low pressure area that formed over Arabian Sea Monday has intensified into a cyclone heading towards Gujarat in the next three days and may bring heavy rains along the west coast, officials at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today said.
“The depression has deepened and intensified and currently lies about 1,050 km southwest of Mumbai. It is likely to develop into an intense cyclone and bring good rains along the western coast. Its impact on advance of southwest monsoon cannot be ruled out,” said a senior IMD official.
Another official said the progress of monsoon over peninsular India may be delayed by a few days if the cyclone deviates from the expected course towards Gujarat.
“Today will be crucial as far as monitoring progress of the cyclone is concerned. If it does not head for Gujarat or Karachi coast today, monsoon progress beyond Kerala will be delayed,” the senior IMD official said.
The northern limit of the monsoon has not advanced since Monday. Its progress will depend on the intensity and direction of movement of deep depression currently lying over central Arabian Sea, the latest Met report said.
Based on numerical weather models, the Met department had forecast that the cyclone is expected to initially move northwest and then re-curve towards the northeast due to presence of strong western disturbance, and reach Gujarat coast around June 4.
“Rains will be good along the west coast, with the exception of small pockets in Ratnagiri... As the system moves further north and then eastwards, rains will stop over Kerala and Goa,” said an official from IMD’s Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for tropical cyclones here.
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Rains are likely to commence over Mumbai and Gujarat in next two days as the cyclone reaches Gujarat coast.
The Met has warned fishermen not to venture in to the sea along Gujarat Coast from Wednesday.
The cyclone is also likely to bring some rains over parts of Rajasthan but not beyond that, the official said.
Current prediction models of the Met department suggest that monsoon rains over Kerala will receive a further push when a new system develops over Bay of Bengal or over southeast Arabian Sea after this cyclone fizzles out.
The Met department on Monday said the southwest monsoon has covered entire Kerala, south Tamil Nadu and most parts of south Arabian Sea and southwest Bay of Bengal, a day ahead of its usual schedule of June 1.
The June-September monsoon covers the entire country by July 15 and is the lifeline for 60 per cent of the country’s arable land.
This year the Met department has forecast southwest monsoon rains to be normal over the country at 98 per cent of the long period average.
Last year, the country received just 78 per cent rains of the long period average during the season — the worst in 37 years.