With the arrival pressure mounting, chana prices are likely to feel the heat in the next few weeks, till the arrival period ends in March.
The crop size in Madhya Pradesh is expected to be around 2.5-2.7 million tonnes, which traders and analysts say is a good output. Similar reports are coming from Rajasthan - another dominant producer of chana. Arrivals in the last fortnight across the country saw a huge jump from 60,000-70,000 bags (each of a quintal) earlier to 1.25 lakh bags. In Madhya Pradesh alone, the arrival has reached close to 50,000 bags from 15,000 bags.
Raghuraman, head, Agriwatch Commodities, said, “Crop for the current season is around 15 per cent more than last year. And as arrivals gain momentum, prices are bound to face southward pressure. Depending on the arrival pattern, the prices per quintal could dip as much as Rs 200.”
According to Badruddin Khan, research analyst at Angel Commodities, “The overall production is expected to be around 5.5-5.6 million tonnes. Going forward, we expect chana prices to be under pressure.” Last year, the output stood at around 5.2 million tonnes.
Apart from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are the other producing centres of chana. However, the last 3-4 years have seen production in the southern region going down.
Rahul Vohra, an Indore-based trader, said, “Presently, prices are ranging between Rs 2,150 and Rs 2,250 a quintal. Arrivals are improving day by day.”
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According to commodity analysts, the countrywide arrival will reach over 2 lakh bags in another fortnight.
Chana was among the essential commodities in which futures trading was banned by the government to control inflation as prices had inched closer to Rs 4,000 a quintal last season. On the NCDEX, the near month chana contract closed on Saturday at Rs 2,262 per quintal against the previous close of Rs 2,295 a quintal.