The markets did well to recover from the early week lows, but still witnessed significant volatility throughout the week owing to global worries. The Sensex, from an early week low of 15,801, rallied smartly to a high of 16,756 — up 955 points led by buying in select index heavyweights like Infosys, TCS and Reliance. The BSE benchmark index finally settled with a gain of 1.8 per cent (292 points) at 16,454.
Among index stocks, DLF zoomed over 10 per cent to Rs 219. Infosys, Jaiprakash Associates, Tata Motors, Reliance and TCS were up 5-8 per cent each. On the other hand, Coal India tumbled over nine per cent to Rs 333. Sterlite Industries, Larsen & Toubro, Hero MotoCorp, Jindal Steel and Tata Steel were the other major losers.
The markets in the short term may remain under pressure, given the negative divergence on the daily charts. However, the yearly Fibonacci charts indicated that the Sensex may drop to 15,100-odd levels on the downside, while rally up to around 18,500 in the next three months.
As of the monthly key levels, the Sensex is likely to seek support around 15,915-15,580, and on the upside the index may face resistance around 17,000-17,330.
The NSE Nifty moved in the range of 275 points, the index touched a low of 4,759 and then rallied to a high of 5,034. The index finally settled with a gain of 1.6 per cent (76 points) at 4,943.
The Nifty is likely to face downward pressure as long as the index trades below 5,015. Above which, the index is likely to counter resistance around 5,130-5,200. On the downside, the index has strong support around the 4,800-odd levels, which is the 200-week moving average.
However, one should note that the weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence) is sloping and ADX (Average Direction Index) is indicating that the bears are getting stronger. Both combined indicated that there was a higher possibility of a downside breakout. On the contrary, the monthly charts indicated that if the Nifty can sustain around 4,800, then we could see a counter rally with an upside target of 5,500 before the year-end.