Bias for MCX Crude Oil still negative; Natural Gas seeks support at 100-DMA

The MCX Crude Oil September futures may trade in a broad range of Rs 6,550 to Rs 7,150 this week. MCX Natural Gas futures seem to be finding support around the 100-DMA.

The bias for MCX Crude Oil September futures is likely to remain negative as long as the contract trades below Rs 7,150-level. Meanwhile, the Natural Gas futures are seen taking support around the 100-DMA for now.

Crude Oil

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 6,944

Resistance: Rs 7,150

Support: Rs 6,765; Rs 6,550

The MCX Crude Oil futures staged a smart pull-back after testing a low of Rs 6,513 last week. The commodity future so far this week has touched a high of Rs 7,073. Despite, the pull-back the overall bias remains negative for Crude Oil as the commodity trades below all its key moving averages.

The near resistance for Crude Oil futures lies at Rs 7,150-level which is the 20-DMA, above which the next significant hurdle is at Rs 7,450-level, wherein the 50-DMA and 200-DMA coincide.

As select key momentum oscillators are now in neutral mode, the commodity may look to seek support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at Rs 6,550-level for the time being.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, near support for MCX Crude Oil September futures is seen at Rs 6,765, below which the commodity could slip to Rs 6,650 - Rs 6,565 - Rs 6,480. Whereas, on the upside, Crude Oil futures need to sustain above Rs 7,080 for fresh strength to emerge. 

On Wednesday, the MCX Crude Oil September futures may move in a range of Rs 6,765 to Rs 7,120, wherein the energy-based commodity could seek support around Rs 6,880 - Rs 6,835 - Rs 6,800. On the upside, the Crude Oil contract may face resistance around Rs 7,005 - Rs 7,050 - Rs 7,085. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Neutral

Last close: Rs 656.60

Support: Rs 626, Rs 620

Resistance: Rs 687, Rs 698

Despite the repetitive bouts of selling pressure, the MCX Natural Gas September futures managed to hold on to the support around the 100-DMA placed at Rs 626-odd level throughout the last week.

The overall bias seems cautiously optimistic as long as the commodity holds above the 100-DMA. On the upside, the commodity may attempt to test the 20-DMA placed at Rs 706-odd level.

Whereas on the flip side, in case, the commodity breaks the 100-DMA, a sharp slide towards the 200-DMA placed around Rs 495-level cannot be ruled out. 

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, Natural Gas futures so far this week have traded in a band of Rs 620 to Rs 675. On the downside, the commodity could slip to Rs 601 - Rs 589.70 - Rs 578.20. On the positive side, the commodity could gain to Rs 687 -Rs 698.50.

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas September futures are likely to trade in a range of Rs 644.50 to Rs 668.70. The September contract may seek support around Rs 652.30 - Rs 649.20 - Rs 646.80. On the upside, the Natural Gas futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 660.90 - Rs 664 - Rs 666.40.