Broader outlook for Gold remains bullish; Silver can pull-back to Rs 59,250

The MCX Gold futures need to cross and sustain above Rs 51,350 to regain upward momentum; Silver futures has near support at Rs 56,100.

Despite the corrective move last week in Gold futures, the overall bias on the broader chart continues to remain positive for Gold. On the other hand, Silver futures seem oversold at current levels hence a pull-back seems likely.

Gold

Bias: Positive

Last Close: Rs 50,810

Support: Rs 49,925

Resistance: Rs 51,350

The MCX Gold futures are exhibiting a mixed outlook on the charts. On one hand, the broader trend on the weekly chart remains firmly positive for Gold futures, while on the other, select price-to-moving averages actions indicates a cautious outlook.

As per the daily chart, the 20-DMA at Rs 50,838 is on the verge of slipping below the 50-DMA at Rs 50,817. Further, both the 20- and 50-DMAs are trading fairly below the 100-DMA placed at Rs 51,313m since late June. As per the price-to-moving averages action, this indicates a cautious outlook with a possibility of a correction or sluggish price movement.

Whereas, the price-to-moving averages action is clearly positive on the weekly chart, with the 20-WMA above the 50-WMA and both the short-term moving averages above the 100-WMA and 200-WMA.

The daily chart indicates that MCX Gold futures need to sustain above Rs 51,350-level to regain the upward momentum. On the downside, the Gold can test the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart at Rs 49,925-odd level, below which the next major support is at Rs 49,650 - its 200-DMA.

According to weekly Fibonacci chart, MCX Gold August futures this week may move in a broad range of Rs 49,670 to Rs 51,950. Gold futures may seek support around Rs 50,400 - 50,100 - 49,900; whereas on the upside, Gold prices are likely to face resistance around Rs 51,215 - 51,515 - 51,730.

On Monday, MCX Gold August futures are likely to seek support around Rs 50,700 - 50,600 - 50,500; whereas resistances for the commodity on the upside can be expected around Rs 50,920 - 51,000 - 51,125.

Similarly, Gold Mini August futures may seek support around Rs 50,715 - 50,625 - 50,495; whereas on the upside could face resistance around Rs 50,965 - 51,055 - 51,185 on Monday.

Silver

Bias: Pull-back likely

Last Close: Rs 57,148

Resistance: Rs 59,250

Support: Rs 56,100

The MCX Silver futures continue to trade with a negative bias on the daily chart. The commodity has been trading below all its key moving averages since late April. The price-action seems to be indicating that Silver futures may test its major support around the Rs 53,000-level - which is the 200-WMA.

However, select momentum oscillators are indicating a likelihood of a pull-back in the near term. The recent low of Rs 56,100 also coincides with the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart.

As long as Silver futures are able to sustain above Rs 56,100, a pull-back to Rs 59,250 seems likely, above which the next target could be Rs 60,620.

The Slow Stochastic on the daily chart is seen turning favourable, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is also showing signs of consolidation.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week the MCX Silver July futures are likely to trade in a broad range of Rs 54,740 to Rs 59,560; with support expected around Rs 56,290 - 55,650 - 55,200. On the upside, Silver futures are likely to face resistance around Rs 58,000 - 58,640 - 59,100.

On Monday, Silver futures are likely to seek support around Rs 56,950 - 56,800 - 56,585, while on the upside the commodity could face resistance around Rs 57,350 - 57,495 - 57,710.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini futures may seek support around Rs 57,380 - 57,240 - 57,040; while Silver could face resistance around Rs 57,750 - 57,890 - 58,100 on Monday.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro futures could seek support around Rs 57,420 - 57,280 - 57,080 and might face resistance around Rs 57,800 - 57,940 - 58,140 today.