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Bull run set to continue

COMMODITIES OUTLOOK

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Dilip Kumar Jha Mumbai
Last Updated : Jan 29 2013 | 1:14 AM IST

Metals, including base and precious, are set to flourish as high crude oil prices (clocking $142 on Friday) may fuel them to new highs. The appeal for bullion as a hedge against inflation rises with crude oil prices shooting up.

Barring a few instances of profit booking, commodity prices are likely to ris in the range of 3-5 per cent this week. Gold is likely to hit $1,000 an ounce by the year-end.

According to an Angel Broking report, the base metals complex looks pretty firm across the board. A combination of factors including a weak dollar, leaping oil prices and some technical issues are giving strength to base metals.

Copper, aluminium and tin may keep speculators' sentiment up on supply constraints, but a short-term correction could not be ignored. Zinc, nickel and lead prices seem to have bottomed out.

Aluminium inventories have hit a record since late-May 2004, indicating an oversupply situation despite rising energy costs.

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Copper inventories remain critical, leaving the market extraordinarily vulnerable to supply shocks. On Friday, copper climbed to its highest in seven weeks in London on declining stocks.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, inventories dropped 3 per cent last week, its sixth consecutive weekly decline. Stockpiles, monitored by the London Metal Exchange, fell 0.9 per cent last week. Copper is currently ruling at $8,750 per tonne in the spot London market.

Aluminum prices are likely to hit record levels next year as output is likely to fall short of demand for the second year. Energy accounts for 45 per cent of the cost of aluminum production.

Aluminium on Friday fell by $15 to $3,085 a tonne, narrowing this month's advance to 5.3 per cent. Zinc fell $60 to $1,930 on with inventories rising to 154,025 tonnes, the highest since September 2006. Lead fell $8 to $1,802 a tonne, nickel held at $21,800 and tin gained $15 to $23,215 a tonne on Friday.

Technical indicators say that gold could rise further, going beyond the key buying level of $900 an ounce, according to an analyst.

The yellow metal is currently hovering around $930.20 an ounce in London, clocking a weekly gain of $38.5. In India, the metal perked up by Rs 275 to Rs 12,825 per 10 gm (standard).

The dollar, currently undervalued by 35 per cent against the euro, may rebound in the long term, dampening further demand for the yellow metal, says a Deutsche Bank report. The metal may peak in 2009, averaging $1,000, before declining to $925 in 2010 and $800 in 2011, the report said.

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First Published: Jun 29 2008 | 12:00 AM IST

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