 "Bumper kharif grain output likely this yr")
India is all set to harvest a record 135 million tonnes (mt) of foodgrains during the current kharif season, aided by a bumper pulses harvest, which is expected to touch new highs.
This would also be first ever record grain production during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure, which has been hit by back-to back droughts.
Oilseeds production is expected to be 23.36 mt, a whopping 40.8 per cent more than last year. This should also go a long way in soothing inflationary concerns and push the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates in its forthcoming policy review next month. The data furnished by the Department of Agriculture showed foodgrains production in 2016-17 kharif season to be 135 mt, almost 8.88 million tonnes more than last year. The previous highest foodgrains production during the kharif season was in 2011-12, when India harvested 131.27 mt of grains. The bumper output has come on back of a record pulses production this kharif season at 8.7 mt – a whopping 57 per cent more than that in 2015-16.
The last time India produced similar bumper crop was in 2010-11, when pulses production touched 7.12 mt. Pulses has been a big problem for the government with prices rising up to Rs 200 a kg for some variety such as arhar (tur). Arhar production in 2016-17 is expected to be 4.29 mt – 1.83 mt more than last year’s.This would also be first ever record grain production during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure, which has been hit by back-to back droughts.
Oilseeds production is expected to be 23.36 mt, a whopping 40.8 per cent more than last year. This should also go a long way in soothing inflationary concerns and push the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates in its forthcoming policy review next month. The data furnished by the Department of Agriculture showed foodgrains production in 2016-17 kharif season to be 135 mt, almost 8.88 million tonnes more than last year. The previous highest foodgrains production during the kharif season was in 2011-12, when India harvested 131.27 mt of grains. The bumper output has come on back of a record pulses production this kharif season at 8.7 mt – a whopping 57 per cent more than that in 2015-16.
Rice, which is the biggest foodgrains grown during the kharif season, is expected to be 93.88 mt, which is 2.81 per cent more than the production in 2015-16 and also a new record for the country.
Oilseeds, another problem area for India, is expected to clock a production figure of 23.36 mt – a 40.8 per cent increase compared to last year. Soybean production this year is expected to be 14.22 mt, which is 5.63 mt more than last year’s. “I want to thank all my farmers, scientists, officials and also the weather for enabling the country harvest a bumper kharif crop,” a visibly elated agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh told reporters.
Ashok Gulati, former chairman of Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP), told Business Standard that authenticity of these numbers would be known if it is reflected in prices, procurement and exports because there is no other alternative to verify the government’s claims.
P K Joshi, South-Asia Director for International Food Policy Research Institute, expects food inflation to come down and vegetable prices to stabilise in the coming months. “Between October and December, overall food inflation would remain down and it should again rise from February-March.”
Joshi said such a big harvest has been possible this kharif season on the back of timely and well distributed rainfall. Cotton production in 2016-17 is expected to be 32.12 million bales (1 bale is 170 kg), which is 6.56 per cent more than last year’s figure.
The only black spots in the overall superlative performance have been on sugarcane, jute and mesta. Sugarcane production in the 2016-17 crop season is expected to be 305.24 mt, down 13.32 per cent compared to last year, while jute output is pegged at 10.40 million bales – 0.57 per cent less than last year.
The southwest monsoon, the lifeline for millions of farmers across the country, was good for most parts of the country in July and August –two crucial months for sowing and growth of kharif crops. Overall, the rains might end at 97-98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is lower than the earlier estimate but not bad enough to make any tangible impact on kharif harvest. LPA is the average rainfall in India in the past 50 years.
Till now, the southwest monsoon has been around four per cent below normal. Good rains have also filled up the reservoirs, which should augur well for the coming rabi harvest as well.