Output projected to touch 103 million tonnes from 94 million tonnes last year.
Over predictions of a good monsoon, the Union agriculture ministry has suggested a bumper paddy crop this year, of 103 million tonnes.
Sources in the ministry say the area under paddy is likely to remain stagnant (42-43 million hectare), but the total output may improve as it expects a consistent monsoon. The diversification of land to crops such as maize and cotton in north-west India and Jharkhand will slightly impact area under paddy, offset by the intensive agriculture carried out in eastern states.
India recorded its highest production of 99.18 million tonnes (mt) of paddy in 2008-09, followed by two draught years registering an output of 89.13 mt (2009-10) and 94 mt (2010-11).
T K Adhya, director, Central Science Research Institute, Cuttack, told Business Standard the minimum support price (MNP) encourages farmers to grow more rice as they are assured of higher returns. He said while MSP has been on the rise during recent years, it is still below the expectations of growers. However, high production will be achieved through higher productivity. “We do not anticipate any large scale increase in area under rice cultivation, there could be marginal increase in area in anticipation of good monsoon,” he added.
There is a lot of potential for yield improvement in India. Egypt has the highest productivity of 9.73 tonnes per hectare while India stands at the 13th position with productivity of 3.37 tonnes per hectare of paddy. Globally, India has the largest area under rice cultivation, second in terms of net harvest after China. In 2009-10, India exported two million tonnes of basmati rice and 139,000 tonnes of non-basmati rice, earning foreign currency of Rs. 11,273 crores.
As the monsoon plays a crucial role in Indian agriculture and is usually uncertain, the Central Rice Research Institute, Cuttack, is working on developing alternate technologies that use lesser water. Named as 'aerobic rice', the technology is at the off-take stage, where cultural practices have already been standardised and the institute is working on developing varieties unique to this cultivation practice.
The procedure mainly involves growing rice in a wheat way without any standing water and restoring to irrigation only when the field comes to moisture content threatening the plant. The varieties being tested for such situations are fertilizer responsive and yields statistically similar like that of high yielding varieties grown under conventional practice with standing water, added Adhya.