The stock market, which is shifting to the rolling mode today, is expected to remain steady without any further fall in prices even though a few players feel that it will dip drastically as there will be widespread chaos and confusion.
Business Standard spoke to a wide section of market players, including fund managers, brokers, traders and institutional players to get a feel of the market outlook for Monday, the first day of the new regime.
There is a consensus that volumes will dip (by around 20-25 per cent) and volatility will increase. Most of the players have decided to wait and watch as activities will be on those counters in which FIIs have an active interest. The market will be more scrip-based, feel the players. This is what some of them had to say:
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Brian Brown, MD, Salomon Smith Barney India: It is going to be a new structure for the markets. The damage has already been done. FIIs will wait and watch the derivatives trading. General sentiment in the market may be weak and the volumes low.
Darshan Mehta, CEO, Moneypour.com: The markets are likely to open on a positive note with a strong overhang from bullish global markets and especially the Nasdaq futures. However, the players will be cautious and the volumes low. Technically speaking, the market has already started functioning under the new system from Friday which ended on a bullish note.
Nimish Shah, CEO & director, Parag Parikh Financial Services: The markets may be listless and volumes will be low. Since it is going to be only delivery-based trading, retail participation will have to be watched.
Fayeza Feroz, AVP-sales, Pranav Securities: Markets will be very cautious. Wait and watch will be the call of the day. The real activity may begin from mid-week.
Jigar Shah, head of research, KRC Securities: Too much hype has been created. There may be a lull but it will not end in a disaster. It will be a trying time. However, given the fact that the volumes on Friday were much higher compared to Thursday, the markets may not be bad.
Jignesh Shah, chief dealer, Refco-Sify Securities India: Markets on Monday look positive. The global markets, being strong at the weekend, will also have a positive impact. Given the situation, FIIs will continue to be major buyers on Monday.
Neel Dalal, broker member, BSE: Markets will be listless and lacklustre on Monday. Volumes will be low. Technical analysis of markets has taken a backseat and it will take some time before the technicals will form definite curves in the new trading system.
Action may be seen in B group stocks while stocks under rolling settlement will witness high volatility over a period of time.
Arun Kejriwal, CEO, KRIS: Brokers will spend time on Monday trying to find out what is happening in the market. There will be total confusion as not may people know the new tricks of the trade. Volumes will dip drastically.
Vijay Bhambwani, chairman, Bhambwani Securities: I expect a very steady market as most of the players will wait and watch before taking a decision. Volumes will be low and volatility high.
Pradeep Doshi, director, Pradeep Doshi Stock Brokers: It is going to be a very dull day and most of the activity will be order driven. No investment-based buying is expected. Only big players will be there in the market.
Pankaj Chopra, director, Wow-India: Volumes are expected to be in line with the current trends as institutional players will like to pick good volume stocks at cheap prices. The market is unlikely to fall drastically. A few will try their hand at option trading too.
Hitesh Doshi, AVP, LKP Shares: The markets should remain steady on Monday. However, the volumes will decline by 20-25 per cent as speculators will have opportunities to play. Institutions will be big players in the market.
Nikhil Vora, portfolio advisor, Sharekhan.com: The markets are likely to remain steady and we may not see a drastic fall as it has bottomed out. Volumes could be low initially, picking up gradually as institution participation increases.
Bharat Shah, director, Vikram Kenia Stock Broker: The markets should remain steady as genuine investors will start buying since most stocks are trading at rock-bottom prices. Long positions in the market have dipped drastically and hence the general fear of offloading is not there in the market. But volumes may decline by another 20-25 per cent.
Kavinder Jain, vice-president, Renaissance Securities: The markets should remain quite stable on Monday. But liquidity will be an area of concern as shortselling is permitted intra-day. FIIs activities will rule the market which will be more scrip specific.