Many tradutionally castor seed sowing farmers in Gujarat and Rajasthan have diverted to pulses this year, on expectation of better returns.
Sowing of castor seed has declined by 27 per cent over a year before, to 745,000 hectares. This could lead to a price rally, say experts. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), the area under castor might decline by 40 per cent this year.
India is the largest producer of castor seed and castor oil in the world. It exports 400,000-450,000 tonnes of the oil every year.
"Castor seed has potential for a big price rally this year. Prices during the past four years had remained low and the acreage this time has fallen. Other than castor seed, wheat prices might also see a sharp increment, depending on how wheat sowing takes place next season," said G Chandrashekhar, member of the commodities and derivatives advisory panel of the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
Sowing of pulses this year has risen to nearly 14.4 million hectares, from 11.1 mn ha a year before. Experts believe production might touch 20 million tonnes in 2016-17.
Adds Chandrashekhar: "The government needs to support farmers (on pulses) and should increase the procurement, as prices have already fallen to below the minimum support price."
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As for castor seed, prices are already moving up. This month, they've risen to Rs 730 per 20 kg and castor oil to Rs 755 per 10 kg. India produces 1.3-1.5 million tonnes of castor seed every year. On the other hand, say experts, higher pulses sowing and substantial import would put pressure on prices in November and December and farmers might not get the return they expect.
"Several castor farmers have shifted to pulses and groundnut crops. As a result, prices of castor seed will go up," said M GDhandhalya, research scientist at Junagadh Agriculture University.