India’s cereal output is likely to increase marginally by less than one per cent by the end of the kharif harvesting due in April 2009.
The latest report by the United Nation’s Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) forecasts total cereal output at 263.1 million tonnes in 2008, a rise of 0.8 per cent from 261 million tonnes in the previous year.
The winter wheat crop is well developed with harvesting due to start in March-April. Plantings are estimated to have increased marginally from the previous year’s already large area to reach 28.2 million hectares. However, the post-monsoon rainfall has been generally scarce in most parts of the country, with 30 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions reporting significantly below-normal rainfall.
The amount of rainfall in February will be critical for the outcome of the season, the report said.FAO estimates wheat output to record a rise of 3.43 per cent at 78.4 million tonnes during 2008 crop year as against 75.8 million tonnes in the previous year. In India, wheat planting begins in November for harvesting the crop in February-March.
| Cereal production | |||
| Commodity | 2006 Also Read | 2007* | 2008** |
| Wheat | 69.4 | 75.8 | 78.4 |
| Coarse grains | 32.5 | 40.5 | 37.7 |
| Paddy | 140.0 | 144.6 | 147.0 |
| Total | 241.9 | 261.0 | 263.1 |
| * estimated, ** forecast | |||
Meanwhile, the government plans to review its ban on wheat exports in March after assessing the stock situation. India banned exports of the politically sensitive grain in 2007 to increase local supplies and prevent domestic prices from skyrocketing.
However, in November, as domestic prices eased, the government earmarked two million tonnes of wheat for exports to selected countries.
The recently ended paddy harvesting in the country is estimated to fetch 1.66 per cent higher output during 2008 at 147 million tonnes from 144.6 million tonnes in the previous year. Total output of coarse grains, in contrast, is forecast to decline 7 per cent to 37.7 million tonnes as against 40.5 million tonnes.
The report, released on Friday, reveals that the world cereal production in 2008 has paved the way for a recovery in global cereal supply and demand balance in the 2008-09 marketing season.