Coffee output in 2011-12 seen at around last year's level

India's coffee production is likely to remain flat at three lakh tonne in the 2011-12 season starting October this year. The country is estimated to have produced 2.99 lakh tonne in the current 2010-11 season (October-September), according to the Coffee Board's post-monsoon forecast. 

In the post-blossom estimate, the board had pegged the coffee output at 3.08 lakh tonne for the current year. The board will shortly release the post-blossom estimate for the 2011-12 season. "The post-blossom estimate for coffee is likely to be about 3 lakh tonne. The ratio of robusta and arabica is 60-40%," a senior coffee board official said.

The production of robusta is likely to fall to about 1.8 lakh tonne in the next season from this year's 2.04 lakh tonne due to untimely and inadequate rains during March-April period and also because of 2011-12 being an off-season.

The arabica output could increase to 1.2 lakh tonne in 2011-12 season as against 95,000 tonnes this year as the next year would be the peak season for the premium bean. 

The growers association, too, has estimated robusta crop at around 1.8 lakh tonne, but differs on forecast of arabica.

According to the planters, board's estimate for robusta in the 2011-12 at 1.8 lakh tonne is in line with their expectations as the output in the next season is expected to go down due to the season being an off-year and because of patchy and inadequate blossom rains.

However, they pointed out that the board's estimate for arabica at 1.2 lakh tonne in the 2011-12 coffee year does not match their expectations.

The arabica potential is expected to rise as the next season is the peak season, but with patchy and inadequate blossom rains, production of the premium brew is expected to be below potential at around one lakh tonnes, the planters said.  

According to the board officials and planters, the area for coffee would more or less remain the same. Arabica was cultivated in 1.93 lakh hectares, while the land under robusta plantations is 2.06 lakh hectares in 2010-11, as per the Coffee Board data.