Coffee production in India is likely to drop by 10-15 per cent in 2011-12 crop year to around 260,000-278,000 tonnes due to scanty rainfall during blossom period of the crop in major growing regions of the country.
India, which is estimated to produce 308,000 tonnes of coffee in 2010-11 season, is likely to produce around 170,000 tonnes of robusta and around 97,500 tonnes of arabica during 2011-12 season.
“A combination of untimely and insufficient rain has resulted in an arabica blossom below its potential. This is expected to drag production for the 2011-12 crop year by around 10-15 per cent in comparison to 2010-11 season,” Sahadev Balakrishna, president of Karnataka Planters’ Association (KPA) said.
Though Coffee Board will come up with its post-blossom estimates for 2011-12 crop year in the next two weeks, data gathered from planters show that there will be a reduction in output, he added.
Coffee in India is produced from a standing crop, which is perennial in nature. Coffee blossoms during February-March period and is harvested during November-January ,depending on the variety in the coffee growing regions of the country. Blossom is one of the key growth phase of the crop, which determines the annual output. Usually, this is keenly watched by all stake holders as it has significant impact on pricing environment in the future.
“Production of robusta will fall as 2011-12 is an off year in the biennial production cycle of the crop. Also, less rainfall during February-March will adversely impact both arabica and robusta in the country,” Ramesh Rajah, president of Coffee Exporters’ Association of India said. Adding, he said the coffee production would witness a deficit globally.
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According to industry experts, both Brazil and Columbia are likely to see a bad crop during 2011-12 season, dragging the production estimate globally. “While 2011-12 will be an off year for Brazil’s coffee crop, production in Columbia is expected to be low due to replanting of coffee plants,” Rajah said.
Arabica output, especially, arabica parchment will remain in short supply due to supply deficit from these countries, he added. However, robusta output may see a normal year in 2011-12 season as crops in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to be sound.
“Vietnam, which is the world’s largest producer of robusta, is expected to have a normal crop this season. Further, Indonesian crop will be normal during this period,” Balakrishna of KPA said.
According to International Coffee Organisation (ICO), the global coffee output is pegged at 132 million bags (one bag is 60 kg) for 2010-11 season. However, some of the industry watchers have a different opinion about the overall crop estimate.
“There are conflicting reports coming from ground regarding post-blossom estimate. We will rather wait for Coffee Board estimates than jumping into any conclusion,” A N Devraj, a Hyderabad-based trader said.