Good rainfall since August 15 in most part of the country has changed the kharif crop outlook perceptibly. Apart from enhancing the yield prospects of the standing crops, these rains have improved the outlook for the next rabi season which can help offset the likely shortfall in kharif harvest. Besides, these showers have augmented the replenishment of water in reservoirs, though the overall storage is still far from satisfactory, being only about half of the live storage capacity of these reservoirs. Unless the situation gets better, which is quite possible as the monsoon has not yet started withdrawing, the concern about the availability of water for irrigation and power production will persist.
The rains in the second half of August and early September have facilitated coverage of more areas under kharif crops. However, paddy and groundnut sowing lag substantially behind last year’s position and the shortfall is unlikely to be fully recovered. The area under paddy, estimated at 30.87 million hectares till September 10, is 6.2 million hectares short of last year’s corresponding position. But, it is 6.1 million hectares more than the 24.73 million hectares planted till August 13 when the revival of the monsoon began.
The area shortfall is mostly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, mainly due to lack of moisture in June. However, the government proposes to launch an extensive drive to promote cultivation of paddy in the ‘Boro’ season (pre-rabi) in eastern states and in the main rabi season to make up for the likely loss in kharif rice output. Among other major kharif crops, the worry is about groundnut which has been planted on about 4.3 million hectares, down about 0.8 million hectares from last year’s 51.2 million hectares. The shortfall is said to be due to poor rain in the groundnut growing belts of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) is advising the farmers to plant toria (oilseed), which can be sown till September-end, to partly compensate for loss in the groundnut output.
The area under soybean is more or less the same as last year’s 9.5 million hectares and the crop condition is reportedly good in most areas except in parts of Maharashtra, where moderate to high incidence of pests and diseases has been observed. The overall output of soybean may be normal and will suffice to meet the demand of the soy-based industry.
The output of pulses may look up this year as these crops have been grown on about half a million additional area and the reports of sowing are still coming in.
While urd has gained acreage in Madhya Pradesh due to late rain, moong has been planted on more land in Karnataka. The crops are said to be in good shape. However, the additional production of pulses may not be able to reduce the import requirement, as, despite some drop in consumption on account of abnormally high prices, the demand supply gap may still top 1.5 million tonnes.
The acreage sown to coarse cereals, too, is marginally higher and, thanks to late rains, the output may exceed last year’s level. But the prices may remain firm due to persistent demand from the poultry and starch industries. Cotton has been grown on about 9.62 million hectares, up 1.13 million hectares from last season’s 8.48 million hectares. The sowing season is over. Excess rain may impair the condition of standing crop in some pockets.
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The late rain has augmented water inflows in reservoirs. The total water stock of 81 major reservoirs has risen from 57.76 billion cubic metres (BCM), or 38 per cent of their current capacity, on August 13, to 77.43 BCM, or 51 per cent of the capacity, on September 10.
But this level is far lower than last year’s corresponding level of 99.54 BCM and past 10 years’ average of 94.53 BCM for this date. The water replenishment may improve further as the monsoon is still active in the northern hills, north-east region and south peninsula and more rains are predicted in several parts of the country in the next few days.