The safest prediction to make this week is that the domestic oil marketing companies will not raise the retail prices of diesel and petrol. On the contrary, the consumer can expect a possible downward revision in prices of the two auto fuels.
This appears possible because of the continuing decline in the international prices of crude oil following a perceptible easing of tensions in West Asia.
Prices of the international benchmark Brent crude, which were hovering around $ 29 a barrel at the beginning of the month, came down to around $28.34 a barrel during the middle of the month, and further to $25.28 a barrel on Tuesday.
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The average international price of Brent crude during the current fiscal works out to $ 26.25 a barrel and the average price for the current month comes to $ 27.78 a barrel.
The highest international price of Brent during the current fiscal was on September 23 when it hit $ 29.52 a barrel, and the lowest price was on April 12, when it was quoted at $ 22.56 a barrel.
While it will be too early for the domestic consumer of petrol and diesel to start celebrating, it is hoped that the international prices of crude oil will drop further as the threat of war in West Asia recedes.
There is some more encouraging news as far as crude oil prices are concerned. Some members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have reportedly planned to defy the cartel and increase production.
These countries need the excess revenues from sale of greater quantities of oil to balance their budgets and finance developments at home.
Several countries also face a problem of high external debt and need oil money to meet their financial needs.
These developments have led several oil industry experts to predit and with some confidence that global crude prices may come down to below $ 24 a barrel in the near future.
This will bring great relief to the domestic consumer, particularly small individual buyers who have upgraded to their first self-owned transport units.
It will also help the government which is justifiably concerned over the burgeoning oil import bill of the country.