An over-benevolent monsoon that is unlikely to start receding before the closing days of September, against the normal beginning of September, has now begun to cause some concern about standing crops, especially the early planted crops, that are nearing maturity. The overall kharif outlook, however, still remains positive with over 95 per cent of the arable land having been brought under crop cover.
On the upside, however, the belated surge in the monsoon and delay in its departure is deemed a boon for the ensuing rabi season. Besides, it is also likely to help redeem some lost ground in the east and north-east where the normal sowing was hampered in many areas due to paucity of rainfall till mid-August. This region as a whole is rain-deficient by nearly 20 per cent till today. However, many pockets within the region have received good showers in the past couple of weeks, creating conditions conducive for the sowing of alternative short-duration crops and fodders.
The overall cumulative monsoon rainfall in the whole country till September 18 is estimated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) at 860.6 mm, against the normal of 833.9 mm for this period. This makes it around three per cent above normal. The rainfall in the first half of September is 22 per cent above normal. The IMD has projected the total waterfall in September to be 15 per cent above normal this year. The complete withdrawal of the monsoon may be only in October. That should leave good moisture in the soil for rabi sowing.
About 61 of the 81 reservoirs have more than 80 per cent of normal storage. Only nine dams are less than half filled. These are Tilaya, Gandhi Sagar, Girna, Salandi, Rengali, Rihand, Mayurakshi and Kangsabati.
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Of 36 reservoirs having hydropower plants attached to them, as many as 27 have above-normal water storage. This is a reassuring factor for crop irrigation in the rabi season as well as for hydro-power generation in summer months.
However, the farmers in most parts are now praying for the rains to relent. For, the crops need sunshine also for their normal growth. The early sown crops of cotton, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals, which are now almost ready for cutting, may get adversely affected due to wet weather. Harvesting is not possible in slushy fields. The produce runs the risk of quality deterioration due to high humidity in case of undue delay in harvesting.
Uncertainty has already been caused about the fate of bajra crop in Rajasthan and some parts of Gujarat due to unabated wet spell in the extended period of this year’s monsoon season. The crop has already matured in some parts and can, therefore, get damaged if the rains do not abate.
Excessive rainfall is also reported to have hurt the standing crops of oilseeds like sesame and groundnut in the country’s vegetable oil bowl of Gujarat and Saurashtra. Though precise assessment of crop loss is yet to take place, it is feared to be as high as over 25 per cent in sesame and 10 to 15 per cent in groundnut in some pockets.
The harvesting of cotton in Punjab and Rajasthan and that of pulses, notably moong and urad, in Madhya Pradesh is reported to have been held up due to the unending rainy spell. However, where harvesting has begun, the arrival of fresh crop in the mandis has depressed the prices by nearly '50 a quintal to the detriment of the farmers.
Among the plantations, tea and coffee estates in south, especially in the coffee fields in the Coorg belt of Karnataka, have been adversely affected by excessive downpour. Some pest build-up has also been noticed there. However, the production loss is deemed to be only marginal so far.
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research has advised the farmers to drain out stagnant water from the submerged fields and undertake hoeing operation to remove weeds. Where the crop plants have been damaged due to excess rains, addition of 30 kg nitrogen per hectare has been recommended to revive them.