The country’s cotton output is set to dip for the first time in six years even as the textile ministry says the crop size is expected to be marginally up. Experts claim actual production could be below 30 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg).
The last fall in cotton output had occurred in 2002-03 when the country had produced 13.6 million bales, as compared with 15.8 million bales in the previous year. Following this sharp fall, more use of the Bt cotton variety had helped increase production.
Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, which form the major cotton-growing region of India, witnessed inadequate rains in the sowing season. According to officials in the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), this inadequacy in rains could play havoc with the final output. Moreover, the acreage under cotton too has shrunk to 9 million hectares as against 9.55 million hectares last year, down six per cent.
“The cotton crop did not get good rains when required. And when rains resumed in July and August, the sowing was delayed. This will result in stunted growth and impact the output of the plants. I believe the final output for the coming year will be between 27.5 and 30 million bales,” said a CCI official, who did not wish to be named.
In 2007-08, the country produced 31.5 million bales, up 12.5 per cent compared with 28 million bales last year. Of this, above 10 million bales were exported — the highest-ever in the country’s history. This resulted in a hike in cotton prices, which had reached historical highs this year. As on August 30, the Shankar-6 variety of cotton was priced at Rs 28,500 a candy (1 candy = 356 kg), up 39.71 per cent, against Rs 20,400 in the same period last year.
The government, at this point of time, seems unclear about the estimates. Shankersinh Vaghela, minister for textiles, had recently said, “The output will be somewhere around 32.5 million bales.” But, highly-placed ministry sources said the output will be around 31 million bales.
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Anupam Barik, director, Directorate of Cotton Development, told Business Standard, “Cotton output may fall below 30 million bales due to immature flowering.” When asked whether higher productivity in Gujarat and increased acreage under Bt cotton (from 70 to 80 per cent) will compensate the expected damage due to late rains, Barik responded that the damage was more than could be compensated.
In its projection, the International Cotton Advisory Committee has put the global cotton production at 24.73 million tonnes for 2008-09, down 5.75 per cent from 26.24 million tonnes in 2007-08.
Though the Cotton Association of India has put its estimates for 2008-09 at 33 million bales, cotton stalwarts said these are all mere guesses, while stressing that the output would be lower.
Less than half of the cotton acreage in Maharashtra has seen almost complete sowing this season. J N Singh, joint secretary, Ministry of Textiles, had told Business Standard that the state was set to see the major setback. Maharashtra has over one-third of the country’s overall cotton acreage at 3.2 million hectares.