India’s cotton consumption is likely to surpass production in the 2009-10 cotton season (October-September) first time in last five years due to a decline in productivity.
The shortfall, however, is likely to be adjusted through carryover stocks of 7.01 million bales from the previous year.
Despite an 11 per cent rise in acreage, cotton output is estimated to rise a marginal 1.72 per cent due to pest attacks.
Data released by CAB showed total area under cotton at 10.33 million hectares this year as compared to 9.41 million hectares in the previous year.
Against that, total output is forecast to increase to 29.5 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) as against 29 million bales in the last season. Total area could rise further, said tthe extile commissioner, also the head of CAB.
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Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with CARE Ratings, attributed farmers intelligent decision in favour of cotton this year due to higher realisation last year.
The benchmark Shankar-6 variety of cotton hit the roof on July 29 at Rs 8,352 a quintal, an increase of 24.79 per cent, from Rs 6,693 a quintal a year ago. Higher area and almost stagnant output means productivity will fall, says Joshi.
Cotton yield is likely to decline 7.63 per cent this year due to problems of pest attacks. Total yield is estimated at 485 kg per hectares (ha) during the ongoing kharif sowing season as compared to 524 kg per ha in the previous season.
An industry veteran on condition of anonymity said, “We have controlled the bollworm attacks. But, other pests like fungus and herbs continued to attack cotton crops resulting into a stagnant yield over the last four years.”
“Between 2002-06, the increase in productivity was due to the revolution of Bt cotton seed. But, now there has been no further innovation in cotton seed technology resulting into stagnant output,” he added.
Cotton is a kharif crop sown with the onset of monsoon. But, the productivity depends upon many factors including evenly distribution of rainfall during the season.