Deficient rains may delay sowing

MONSOON WATCH

Oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereals likely to be hit.

After a lull of over 12 days, the monsoon has revived and is expected to advance from south peninsula towards the north.

But half of the country's total 36 meteorological sub-divisions have thus far remained rain deficient and will get their first monsoon shower at least a week to 10 days behind schedule.

This may cause some delay in the planting of rain-fed crops, notably oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereals. But if sustained rainfall occurs over next three to four weeks, the delay may not adversely effect crop production, agriculture experts feel.

Normally, the monsoon should have covered entire Maharashtra, Telangana, Rayalseema, east Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, most parts of west Uttar Pradesh and some parts of east Rajasthan (up to Kota) by 20 June.

However, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has projected that the revived monsoon would cover the remaining parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and some part of Chhattisgarh in the next day or two.

It may move further ahead to cover east Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh in the next five days. With this, farm operations will get going in full swing.

Cumulative rainfall since June 1 in the entire country is reckoned at 54.2 mm, some 3 per cent lower than the normal 55.9 mm.

The period between June 8 and 4 has been the driest thus far, with the whole country, barring north-eastern states and Bihar, reporting scanty rainfall. Rainfall deficiency during the period ranged from 60 per cent to as much as 99 per cent in different areas.

This was also reflected in the drop in water level in many reservoirs, forcing authorities to turn cautious in releasing water for irrigation and hydel power production.

The reservoir management in some dams in the north-western region, such as Bhakhra, Rihand and others, are reported to have either slashed or capped the power production, resulting in tight power availability in the northern electricity grid.

The total water storage in 76 major dams, which was estimated by the Central Water Commission at around 31.38 billion cubic metres (BCM) on June 9, dropped to 30.43 BCM by June 16.

However, the overall situation was still not unsatisfactory as, despite this fall, the current water level is twice the last year's corresponding position and 81 per cent above the past 10 years' average level at mid-June. Only five dams had very low water storage.

These are Gandhi Sagar in Madhya Pradesh, Sriramsagar in Andhra Pradesh, Mula and Isapur in Maharashtra and Rana Pratap Sagar in Rajasthan.

The reports from states on crop sowing indicate that the situation is fairly normal in areas covered by the monsoon before it went into the weak phase on June 8.

The crops sown with the first spell of rains maintained normal germination and growth thanks to intermittent, albeit light, showers in the peninsula and almost regular modest to medium rainfall in the north-east even during the weak phase.

The north-western farm belt has also reported normal planting of paddy nurseries, cotton and other kharif crops thanks to availability of irrigation water, despite erratic power supply.

However, farmers in the central region and Rajasthan (barring the areas irrigated by the Indira Gandhi canal) are awaiting arrival of monsoon to begin kharif sowing.

The latest information from the agriculture ministry indicates that rice, the most important kharif crop, has already been sown on 1.4 million hectares this year, against 1.35 million hectares covered till now last year.

Among commercial crops, sugarcane has been planted over 4.45 million hectares, against 4.2 million hectares sown last year.

But cotton sowing is slightly lagging behind with only 9.48 lakh hectares planted till June 19, against 9.99 lakh hectares till that date last year. The transgenic, pest-protected Bt-cotton seeds are estimated to have been used on about a third of this area.

However, the pace of sowing of predominantly rain-fed crops of oilseeds has been rather slow so far this season.

The total area planted under these crops till June 16 is estimated at 2.85 lakh hectares, against over 4 lakh hectares cover by this time last year.

But the coverage of pulses is relatively better this year "" around 3.2 lakh hectares, against 2 lakh hectares last year "" reflecting farmers' anticipation of higher returns owing to current high market prices of pulses.