On the one hand, developed markets (DMs) are battling with sluggish growth, high government debt, rising unemployment and falling consumption levels. On the other, emerging markets (EMs), largely seen as drivers of growth during such difficult times, are grappling with high inflation and interest rates.
The failure of euro authorities to effect an economic recovery in its peripheral economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, coupled with the threat of debt contagion percolating to larger economies such as Italy and Spain, are expected to prolong the drama. In addition, policymakers in the US may consider another stimulus in the back drop of high unemployment, sluggish growth outlook and a weakening currency.
Given the uncertain scenario, investors’ quest for growth will see movement in emerging economies. The key positives for India include a likely moderation in global commodity prices, including crude oil, as consumption in the US and China falters. India is also in a better position to tackle a multi-year slowdown in the West, as its exports to GDP constitute only 22 per cent, against the likes of China where it is close to 40 per cent.
It is believed the US private sector is sitting on about $3 trillion of idle cash on their balance sheets. Japan is in a similar situation. With near- zero interest rates in these economies, there is expectation of large inflows into India in the form of FII and FDI.
What also scores for India is its current market valuation, which is not expensive. Therefore, good medium-to-long term buying opportunities exist. However, buying must be staggered at various price levels. We maintain neutral weight on equities at this juncture and would ‘wait-and-watch’ before going overweight on Indian equities. Portfolios where equity allocation has fallen below the desired long-term strategic allocation should work towards bringing it back to normal.
In debt, investments in short-term funds and 18-24 months fixed maturity plans (FMPs) can be done to benefit from the current higher interest rates. Overnight rates in India are now around eight per cent (especially post the 75 bps rate rises in July and September). Assuming inflation expectation tapers a bit in the second half of the current financial year, the Reserve Bank of India may soon maintain status quo on rates, which will have positive impact on bond yields, especially at short-end, where rates have significantly moved up in the past year.
The failure of risky assets has resulted in gains for precious commodities such as gold, which acts as a portfolio diversifier. The yellow metal has delivered 25 per cent annualised returns over the past three years and it is likely to gain momentum unless global uncertainty abates. Therefore, we maintain our stance of five per cent portfolio allocation on gold, using it as a hedge against unforeseen events.
The author is CEO and Managing Partner, ASK Wealth Advisors