Emkay: Currency Update

Huge sell off in gold along with expected positive WPI data can strengthen INR

The partially convertible rupee ended at 54.52/53 per dollar, unchanged from its close on Wednesday. Poor local markets on Friday pushed INR down against US dollar however positive CPI data helped INR to sustain. Lesser Inflation data also sparked hopes in the market that RBI might go for a rate cut next month resulting in further downfall of Indian Rupee. Indian rupee to is expected to appreciate today as positive WPI data coming at 11.30 today can push INR higher against dollar. Also sell off in gold can strengthen INR by reducing CAD. In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-month dollar/rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange all closed at about 54.68, with a total traded volume of $4.4 billion.

Against the dollar, the euro was at $1.3078, down 0.2 percent. Euro was down against dollar over Cyprus issue as it declared to sell off their gold reserves to overcome crisis. This resulted panic in the market and pressured Euro as well Euro is expected to fall further as issue concerning Cyprus has resulted in panic that other debt ridden nations in Euro can also be asked to sell off their gold reserves. The dollar last traded at 98.78 yen, down 0.9 percent and far below the session high of 99.80 yen. Yen is expected to fall further today as Bank of Japan may increase the speed of their monetary easing over two days meet starting today.

Spot USDINR price is expected to trade sideways to lower for the day towards 54.30-54.25 levels or towards 54.00 levels in near term from where we could see some positive sentiment to enter that helps prices to push higher towards 54.78 levels for the short term.