More oilseeds areas could be converted on higher MSP, market prices.
The sowing area under pulses is likely to increase by 10-12 per cent per cent in this ongoing kharif season, feel industry analsysts, due to crop diversion from oilseeds.
The Union agriculture ministry reported a marginal decline in the cumulative acreage area as on the week ended June 18, to 130,000 hectares from 140,000 hectares in the same period a year earlier. However, this is only the start of the season and analysts believe a recovery is imminent. In the previous week, the sowing area was 18 per cent higher than a year earlier.
The total area for pulses was 23.16 million hectares in the 2009-10 crop year, a little less than half coming in the kharif season (55 per cent came from the rabi crop). The acreage was 5.6 per cent lower in 2009-10 than the earlier year.
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K C Bharatiya, president of the Pulses Importers Association, believes sowing will pick up in the coming days and be higher compared to last year. He gives three reasons. One, the government raised the minimum support price (MSP) of all pulses ahead of sowing.That for tur has been raised by 30 per cent or Rs 700 per quintal to Rs 3,000. For moong and urad, it has been revised upwards by 15 per cent each to Rs 3,170 per qtl and Rs 2,900 per qtl, respectively.
Two, the retail price of pulses prices rose significantly last year to hit Rs 94 per kg of tur and Rs 72 per kg of urad. They have since slipped, to trade currently at Rs 65-70 per kg and Rs 45-55 per kg, respectively. Bharatiya sees no reason for any further decline in prices, due to a low global crop.
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Third, the prices of our annual imports set a trend for the home market. And, prices are presently ruling higher in the global market.
Pulses, says Amol Tilak, an analyst with Kotak Commodity Services Ltd, a Mumbai-based broking firm, are largely grown in central India, Maharashtra and Gujarat in the kharif season. They compete directly with oilseeds (and also with cotton and sugarcane), where there has been a huge building of inventory. Therefore, farmers will have to opt for more remunerative crops, of which pulses are one.
Monsoon factor
Rainfall was about five per cent deficient till the end of third week of June. Amol hopes the pulses’ sowing area would pick up once rainfall resumes, possibly in the last week of the month.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with CARE Ratings, said the government had been spending more to raise soil fertility and, thereby, the yield in the existing area under pulses.
“We saw higher yields per hectare in pulses last year, which means these programmes may be working in the right direction and have to be persevered with,” he said. However, he also felt that, “It will be too premature to comment on whether there has been a switch from oilseed to pulses.”
The total production of pulses in India is estimated at 14.7 million tonnes annually, with an average yield of 659 kg per ha, much lower than the yield in developed countries of 1,700-2,000 kg per ha. India imports three to four million tonnes of pulses each year to meet its rising consumer demand. The per capita consumption is about 12 kg a year. The country is well short of requirement. Net imports have risen from 460,000 tonnes in 1998-99 to over two million tonnes in 2008-09. It is likely to go up if more attention is not given to raising home production, Bharatiya said. Countries such as Canada and Australia are reaping the benefits of India’s rising demand.