The short-term trend has consolidated slightly. The intermediate and long-term trends still appear to be down. The chances of another sharp downtrend and a new 2011 low within the June settlement remain, but the danger is less immediate.
The Nifty is holding above support at 5,400 and testing resistance above 5,500. This zone is too tight to last long without breakouts. A drop below 5,400 would set up an immediate target of 5,250-5,275. If that happens, the 5,177 low of February 2011 will probably be broken. On the upside, resistance between 5,500-5,600 looks difficult to crack but a target of 5,650 is possible.
The institutional attitude is net-negative. The CNXIT is range-trading, while the Bank Nifty has essayed a temporary recovery. The Bank Nifty is testing resistance above 10,800 and it may climb back to 11,000, though theres is a substantial discount on the June futures, suggesting it won’t. The CNXIT is range-trading between 6,450-6,550.
Three trading possibilities exist in the next 5 sessions. A breakdown till 5,200-5,250 is one. A recovery till 5,600-5,700 is another. The third is range-trading between 5,400-5,550. The Nifty put call ratio (PCR) is in the normal zone, up from very negative. The June PCR is at 1.26 while the overall PCR is 1.27. Daily volatility could be around 100-125 points in the next 5 sessions.
The June call chain has a huge open interest (OI) bulges at 5,800c and good OI between 5,500c-5,700c. The June put chain has a big bulge at 5,000p, another big bulge at 5,300p and good OI till 5,500p. The consensus expectation would be moves between 5,300-5,800 with some outliers betting on bigger downsides.
Close to money, the risk:reward ratios are reasonable. A bullspread of long June 5500c (88) and short 5600c (49) costs 39 and pays a maximum of 61. A bearspread of long June 5400p (79) and short 5300p (49) costs 30 and pays a maximum of 70. The bearspread is further from spot (5473).
We could combine the above for a long-short strangle position, with a poor risk:reward ratio but fair chances of returns in both directions.
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The cost is 69, the breakevens are at 5331, 5569, with a maximum one-way return of 31. If you want a wider strangle, a long 5300p, long 5600c offset with short 5200p (24) and short 5700c (29) offers a reasonable risk reward ratio with a cost of 45, breakevens at 5255, 5645, and max one-way return of 55.
Another way to create a hedged position is a long future with a stop loss at say 5450, and a CTM bearspread of long 5400p, short 5300p.
This would start to payoff if the market moves outside approximate breakevens of 5350, 5500. The upside return is unlimited but the downside return is restricted to somewhere between 50-55.
Butterflies are tempting and they can be combined. But the trader must be prepared to pay multiple brokerages. A call butterfly of long 5500c, two short 5600c and long 5700c costs a maximum of 14, breaks even at 5514,5686, and pays a maximum 86 at 5600. A put butterfly of long 5400p, two short 5300p and a long 5200p costs a maximum 10, breaks even at 5390, 5210, and pays a maximum 90 at 5,300.