Normally, the monsoon begins withdrawing from September 1. But this year, there is no sign of its receding as yet. The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has indicated that the western region and parts of central and peninsular India may continue to get rain till at least September 17.
If this holds true, it will not only help salvage the standing moisture-stressed kharif crops but will also benefit rabi sowing. The government is pinning its hopes on good rabi harvest to partly make up for the anticipated loss in kharif production as had happened last year. Besides, the belated withdrawal will also facilitate improvement in water level in major reservoirs, most of which have reported poor water filling this year. The total water storage in 81 major reservoirs till August 27 was only 63.44 billion cubic metres (BCM), against 96 BCM last year and past 10 years’ average of 86.71 BCM.
Thus, replenishment has so far been nearly 27 per cent below normal. This is causing concern as it may reduce availability of water for irrigation in the rabi season and hit hydel power production as well.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the overall monsoon rainfall deficiency has shrunk further to 23 per cent by August-end from 26 per cent on August 19. The deficiency is maximum, 38 per cent, in the northwestern grain bowl. It is the least 14 per cent in the south peninsula. However, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread showers along west coast and parts of central india and peninsula in next 2-3 days. Good rainfall is also predicted for the northwest India in next 3-4 days. These rain will benefit the standing crops of paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. Though the time is up for the sowing of oilseeds, the belated planting of paddy, pulses and some coarse cereals is still going on in several states.
The latest information available with the Agriculture Ministry shows that the paddy sowing continues to lag behind last year’s level by about 6.9 million hectares, or 19 per cent. This shortfall is unlikely to be made up to any substantial extent as part of the paddy acreage has been shifted to other crops requiring less water. Pulses have been a major gainer in acreage due to their prevailing high prices and low rainfall. The highest area coverage under pulses is reported from Rajasthan and Maharashtra, followed by Madhya Pradesh. But the prices of pulses may remain firm as the large gap between demand and domestic production will persist, necessitating import of over 2 million tonnes of pulses.
| STATE-WISE AREA UNDER PULSES TILL AUGUST 26 | ||||
| State | 2008 | 2009 | Difference | % difference |
| Andhra Pradesh | 6.84 | 5.30 | 1.54 | -22.50 |
| Bihar | 0.63 | 0.80 | 0.17 | 26.98 |
| Chhattisgarh | 3.34 | 3.26 | 0.07 | -2.28 |
| Gujarat | 6.04 | 5.95 | 0.90 | -1.49 |
| Haryana | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.04 | -7.41 |
| Karnataka | 8.76 | 10.69 | 1.93 | 22.03 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 9.47 | 11.70 | 2.23 | 23.55 |
| Maharashtra | 17.31 | 19.55 | 2.24 | 12.94 |
| Orissa | 4.56 | 3.93 | 0.64 | -14.00 |
| Punjab | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 10.53 |
| Rajasthan | 20.31 | 20.08 | 0.23 | -1.13 |
| Tamil Nadu | 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.22 | -22.66 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 8.28 | 7.33 | 0.95 | -11.47 |
| West Bengal | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 50.00 |
| Others | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.07 | 13.07 |
| All India | 87.86 | 90.74 | 2.88 | 3.28 |
| Figures in lakh hectares Source: Agriculture ministry | ||||
Tur, or arhar, the most widely consumed variety, has been planted over 3.27 million hectares, up about one lakh hectares, or 3.2 per cent, from last season’s 3.17 million hectares. Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh have reported good sowing of tur. Urad and moong, the other important kharif pulses, have also been planted on about one lakh hectare larger area, each, than last year. The crop condition is said to be normal in most areas.
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Oilseed area has dropped largely because of poor sowing of groundnut in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka due to lack of rain in June. The area under groundnut has shrunk by over 6 lakh hectares, or 44 per cent, to 0.77 million hectares in Andhra Pradesh; by 1.36 lakh hectares, or 7.5 per cent, to 1.65 million hectares in Gujarat; and by about 1 lakh hectares, or 17 per cent, to 0.48 million hectares in Karnataka.
However, soybean sowing has been, more or less, normal with about 0.94 million hectares planted under this crop, against last year’s 0.95 million hectares. Good rain in Madhya Pradesh in August has benefited this crop.
The prices of most edible oils, however, are expected to remain stable though there may be some upwards pressure on groundnut oil. This is because international prices of edible oils are stable in view of good supplies due to lower diversion of vegetable oils to bio fuel production in the wake of economic slowdown. Sugarcane sowing has almost caught up with the last year’s level with 4.25 million hectares having already been planted with this crop. The ongoing rain will benefit the crop. But the poor opening inventories of sugar in October next and anticipated below normal sugar output will keep the prices firm.