Although the current year’s monsoon is yet to set in, commodities think tank United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated positive agri output in India for the ensuing season in anticipation of favourable climatic conditions.
According to the data collated by the Knowledge Management Department of the NCDEX on the basis of the latest report by the USDA, all commodities barring wheat may see a rise in this year’s output. Wheat output may decline marginally to 77.5 million tonnes this year as against 78.6 million tonnes in the previous year.
The output of major agri commodities is likely to rise closed to the level of 2007-08. But, sugar will continue to remain sour for Indian consumers with an estimated output of 20.8 million tonnes in ensuing season 2009-10 (October - September) as compared to 16.8 million tonnes in the previous year.
The USDA release said, “The overall production prospects for India appear to be positive in all crops considered here except wheat. However, given the stocks that are there, the decline in production is unlikely to put pressure in the market.”
However, global shortages can have an impact on Indian prices as there has is a strong correlation between domestic and international prices. The route taken for this correlation is the foreign trade route, where the product is either exported or imported into the country.
Experts believe that the monsoon will remain favourable and rainfall will be spread evenly throughout the country which will help in higher output this year.
Good monsoon is also forecast to benefit the wheat crop which is sown after the rainy season.
The monsoon is spread in India from June through September and rain-fed crops including paddy (rice) and oilseeds (largely soybean) are sown during the season.