According to experts, paddy output in the ongoing kharif marketing season (October to September) might be five per cent less than last season, but Food Corporation of India (FCI) has fixed a procurement target of 30 million tonnes (mt) for this kharif season, from last season’s 28 mt.
According to scientists at the Centre for Rice Research, Cuttack, the cyclical storm in eastern India could boost production, though the overall situation remains precarious. The irrigated regions of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh could be the only bright spots; the other states could not achieve 100 per cent sowing target, owing to deficient rain in the early months of monsoon. According to the first advance production estimates of major Kharif crops, during 2015-16 kharif rice production was pegged at 90.61 mt - 0.98 mt more than its five-year average production.
A senior FCI official said fear of low procurements is exaggerated as the irrigated states contribute close to 14 mt. “The drought-like situation in Chhattisgarh and Odisha can make a dent in the target but we will try to make up for the loss by ramping up procurement in states like Assam and Madhya Pradesh.”
“With a closing stock of around 10 mt of rice and an annual requirement of 30 mt for the public distribution system, we already have buffer stock,” he added.
Despite the impetus given to diversification of agriculture from water-guzzling paddy to maize and vegetables, there has not been much variation in the area under paddy in Punjab. The state is projected to send 8.2 million tonnes of rice to the national kitty, followed by an estimated 3.6 million tonnes by Chhattisgarh.