Feb heat likely to hurt wheat in the north

For the first time, a wing of the government has accepted that the current wheat crop's yield is likely to be affected by the high temperature in February.

While the exact damage to the crop is yet to be assessed, N Chattopadhyay, a director with India Meteorological Department's agriculture division, said the damage to the crop, contrary to the general perception, had been caused by the high temperature and not the recent rain and hailstorm.

"The damage is likely in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh as the temperature was about 7-8 degrees higher than normal. Also in February, the seed is quite sensitive. We are, however, yet to receive damage reports," said Chattopadhyay.

He further clarified that the recent instances of rain in most parts of the country were unlikely to affect wheat crop yield. "Wheat crop is not into the flowering stage yet and thus, did not get affected by hailstorms also. Further, the rains have helped bring down temperatures, as expected, to congenial level," the official added.

This year, as per official estimates, wheat acreage is about 265.47 lakh hectares compared with 263.83 lakh hectares during the corresponding period last year. The yield has risen in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat and West Bengal. However, lower coverage has been reported in Madhya Pradesh, due to lower coverage in Malwa region, which did not see rains and faces a lack of irrigation facilities.

Wheat output for the current season, using acreage and average yield official data, is 721.5 lakh tonnes. This estimate, however, does not include the likely damage officials are now expecting, especially in northwestern region of the country.

As per official data, current season's wheat output is pegged at 730 lakh tonnes compared with 720 lakh tonnes last year. As per official data, average yield for the last five years is 2714.8 kilograms per hectare.

The domestic consumption of wheat is estimated at 750 lakh tonnes, as per official estimates, thereby leaving a huge demand-supply mismatch in the favour of the former.