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Vijay Bhambwani Mumbai
Last Updated : Jan 28 2013 | 2:19 AM IST
 The breadth was slightly negative on Monday. An analysis of the numerical and capitalisation breadth shows that there was concentrated buying in index heavyweights, whereas the second-rung counters saw selling pressure.

 Traded volumes were slightly lower compared with the 10-day average and that shows a firm commitment at higher levels.

 For the market to commence a sustainable rally, the Nifty needs to close above 1425 levels and the Sensex above 4465 levels.

 The upmove must be accompanied with heavy volumes and a highly positive breadth.

 Currently, only the index front runners are running away whereas the side counters seem to have been stuck in a groove.

 In case these levels are surpassed, expect the next level for the Nifty at 1465. On the lower side, expect short-term support to come at 1373 levels.

 The outlook for Tuesday is of cautious optimism. The first half is likely to be bullish, but profit taking may set in at higher levels.

 Technology, oil & gas and pharmaceutical sectors will continue to outperform and lead from the front, while cement and automobile sectors are likely to bring up the rear.

 Should the overseas markets be firm, expect the outlook to be positive and downsides fairly limited.

 Among stocks, ITC is attempting to make higher tops and is likely to accelerate the upmove especially if Rs 862 levels are surpassed on a closing basis.

 In a bullish market, expect Rs 880 - Rs 885 levels as a fair probability. Buy in the cash and derivatives segments.

 NIIT has closed at its highest levels since January 2003 and has managed to clear the 200-day SMA hurdle in the bargain.

 The upward momentum is likely to continue especially if the software sector remains firm. Buy for the short term maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 147 and a target of Rs 162. Buying recommended in the cash and derivative segments.

 Keep volumes lower as the markets are expected to be choppy.

 Vijay Bhambwani

 CEO, BSPLindia.com

 The author is a Mumbai-based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com

 Sebi disclosure: The analyst has no exposure to the scrips mentioned above.

 

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First Published: Sep 09 2003 | 12:00 AM IST

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